金十数据整理：10家投行前瞻欧洲Banque centrale Taux d'intérêt 决议——立足7月，放眼9月

GoldenOctober2024

2024-07-18 06:14:42

Création du résumé en cours

Goldman Sachs: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged and reiterate its reliance on data and a gradual decision-making approach at each meeting without pre-committing to a specific interest rate path. Lagarde will acknowledge sticky inflation in the services sector but believe that inflation is still broadly on a downward trajectory, and the European Central Bank may cut rates again in September. 2. Bank of America: The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and strive for neutrality. Since June, there hasn’t been significant new information to strengthen the belief in rate cuts, and it is not expected that the bank will signal any rate moves in September. Our fundamental forecast remains that the European Central Bank will cut rates twice more this year. 3. Deutsche Bank: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, and Lagarde may pave the way for a rate cut in September by hinting that the data aligns with the bank’s forecasts, even if she reiterates reliance on data. While a commitment to rate cuts is unlikely to be as explicit as before the June interest rate decision, the market should be able to understand this. 4. BNP Paribas: The July meeting of the European Central Bank is expected to primarily lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. The overall inflation in September and October will be closer to the target level, indicating that September would be a good time for a rate cut. The market’s pricing of a rate cut once per quarter by the bank seems reasonable, with the final interest rate expected to be close to 2.50%. 5. TD Securities: It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged. We believe that even if the bank maintains language similar to that of June, it can still retain the possibility of a rate cut in September without becoming more dovish to strengthen rate cut expectations. We do not expect the July meeting to have a significant impact on the euro. 6. Morgan Stanley: The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Lagarde’s press conference should follow future interest rate paths and developments in French politics. Data since June has not significantly changed the bank’s assessment of macro prospects, and the bank may reiterate its reliance on data and continue to anchor interest rate expectations. 7. Deutsche Bank: The European Central Bank may avoid giving clear guidance and emphasize that it has no predetermined interest rate, but as inflation approaches the target, its restrictive monetary policy stance will further relax. However, the European Central Bank does not want to commit to when and how much to cut rates. It hopes to be data-driven. 8. Nordea Bank: The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and wait for confirmation that inflation continues to approach the target. It is expected that Lagarde will once again emphasize that the European Central Bank will rely on data and follow a gradual decision-making approach without pre-committing to a specific interest rate path. The bank will wait until September to cut rates again. 9. ING Bank: The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and avoid issuing any new forward-looking guidance that could disrupt market pricing. The bank’s communication is less is more, and its impact on interest rates and forex should be limited. Considering the divisions at the June meeting and the upside risks to inflation, a rate cut in September is not a foregone conclusion. 10. Rabobank: The door to rate cuts in July is firmly closed, and the data suggests that the bank should continue to be cautious without the need for consecutive rate cuts in July. The European Central Bank’s forecasts may be too mild, so it will not prevent it from resuming rate cuts in September, but there are upside risks to our future deposit rate forecasts.

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