Research

Gate Options Daily Market Update.

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC and ETH are consolidating after a pullback from recent highs; positioning has turned defensive, with flows rotating into steadier altcoin themes such as tokenized commodities/gold, payments, privacy, and DID. Ethereum continues to dominate tokenized commodity issuance with an 85% share. Long-term holders have accelerated distribution, marking Bitcoin’s strongest sell pressure since August. Prediction market volume hit a new all-time high, increasingly acting as an on-chain “expectations pricing layer.” Polymarket is driving a surge in USDC usage, and Mizuho upgraded Circle’s rating while highlighting its growth optionality. SUI is set to unlock roughly $60.94 million worth of tokens over the next 7 days, representing 11% of circulating supply.

On January 28, the crypto market saw a brief relief rebound, with broad-based gains and capital rotating back into core assets and large-cap majors. On the thematic side, mid- and small-cap tokens such as PIPPIN, BNKR, and XRD rallied strongly on agent narratives and expectations around product/tooling updates, with flows clearly concentrating into higher-beta names. Meanwhile, Tether launched its USAT dollar stablecoin as part of a two-track approach combining regulatory segmentation and distribution expansion; Kite released a mainnet roadmap centered on agent-native trust and pay-per-call payments; and Polygon continued to lead x402 agentic payment transactions, while Base activity has weakened for eight consecutive days.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 28, the crypto market saw a brief relief rebound, with broad-based gains and capital rotating back into core assets and large-cap majors. On the thematic side, mid- and small-cap tokens such as PIPPIN, BNKR, and XRD rallied strongly on agent narratives and expectations around product/tooling updates, with flows clearly concentrating into higher-beta names. Meanwhile, Tether launched its USAT dollar stablecoin as part of a two-track approach combining regulatory segmentation and distribution expansion; Kite released a mainnet roadmap centered on agent-native trust and pay-per-call payments; and Polygon continued to lead x402 agentic payment transactions, while Base activity has weakened for eight consecutive days.

2025 marks a paradigm shift in the crypto market from "macro-sentiment" to "compliance and microstructure" drivers. Despite global rate cuts, the linear logic of "Rate Cuts = Bull Market" failed, giving way to profound structural differentiation. BTC exhibited high correlation with tech stocks, while RWAs and Stablecoins surged as new liquidity reservoirs. As pricing power shifts from VCs to the secondary market and on-chain derivatives reshape trading, this report analyzes the 2025 liquidity landscape and forecasts a 2026 "Structure-Driven" cycle dominated by institutional pricing.

Gate TradFi is a one-stop macro multi-asset trading gateway launched by Gate, covering CFDs on precious metals, forex, indices, commodities, and popular U.S. stocks. These products allow users to trade on price movements rather than owning the underlying assets. The system uses USDx as the in-account display unit, pegged 1:1 to USDT, enabling users to participate in TradFi trading within the familiar USDT framework without currency conversion. Built on MT5, Gate TradFi enables synchronization between the Gate App and MT5 accounts and trade records. It also provides transparent rules on spreads, commissions, overnight fees, and liquidation mechanisms, helping traders perform multi-market rotation and hedging within a single account.

Last week, BTC showed a weak consolidation pattern after a failed rebound on the 4-hour chart. The market saw a volume-driven decline followed by a low-volume rebound, indicating that the current bounce is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. ETH's price action mirrors BTC's, but it is noticeably weaker. The structure remains a weak rebound within a bearish trend. On-chain capital flows are showing clear signs of defensive rebalancing. Ethereum net inflows have approached $350 million. Hyperliquid and StarkNet saw net outflows of over $200 million and $167 million, respectively. In the prediction market, industry competition is being reshaped by a "points + zero-fee" strategy.

Gate Research Daily Report: Bitcoin remains in a controlled pullback for now, but its overall price structure is showing clear signs of fatigue. Ethereum is hovering around USD 2,900, while downside risks still warrant close attention. ACU surged more than 34%, driven by expanded market access. Axie Infinity’s launch of bAXS pushed AXS up by over 32%. Zerohash is in talks to raise around USD 250 million, with a potential valuation of USD 1.5 billion. Goldman Sachs expects the January FOMC meeting to be largely uneventful, with the first rate cut of the year likely starting in June. VanEck’s first AVAX spot ETF has been listed on Nasdaq.

On January 26, major crypto assets came under broad pressure as market risk appetite continued to contract. After an emotion-driven sell-off, BTC found support around $86,000 but remains below its medium-term moving averages, while ETH broke below its previous consolidation range, with volatility expanding noticeably. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 20, indicating the market is in an extreme fear zone. Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap tokens such as TAIKO, AUCTION, and BOB moved higher against the trend, driven by factors including technical upgrades, capital rotation, and supply constraints, highlighting localized sector rotation. On the narrative front, the SocialFi thesis is rapidly unwinding, with social tokens broadly down more than 90%; BTC payments are seeing accelerated offline adoption in Las Vegas; and while on-chain stablecoin settlement volumes continue to grow, their share of real-world payments remains relatively small.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 26, crypto market sentiment fell into the extreme fear zone, with major assets under pressure and risk appetite continuing to contract. Mid- and small-cap tokens such as TAIKO, AUCTION, and BOB moved higher against the broader trend, driven by technical upgrades, capital rotation, and supply constraints, indicating localized sector rotation. Structurally, the SocialFi narrative is rapidly unwinding, with social tokens broadly down more than 90%; Bitcoin payments are seeing accelerated offline adoption in Las Vegas and other locations; and while on-chain stablecoin settlement volumes continue to expand, their share of real-world payments remains below 0.02%.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 23, BTC rebounded after a sharp sell-off that previously pushed it down to around $87,000, and is now consolidating within the $89,300–$89,900 range; ETH staged a technical rebound after falling to around $2,866, but retreated after facing resistance near $3,000 and is now moving sideways between $2,930–$2,980; GT, after rebounding from lower levels, is capped by resistance near $10.10 and continues to trade in a weak consolidation pattern; XRD led small-cap tokens with a surge of +60.19%. Meanwhile, South Korean authorities reported that BTC under custody may have been stolen in a phishing attack, involving around $47 million; Citi warned that the recent surge in Ethereum on-chain activity is likely driven mainly by “address poisoning” scams; and World Liberty Financial’s partnership with Spacecoin to launch the USD1 satellite DeFi project has drawn market attention.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 23, BTC rebounded after a sharp sell-off that previously pushed it down to around $87,000, and is now consolidating within the $89,300–$89,900 range; ETH staged a technical rebound after falling to around $2,866, but retreated after facing resistance near $3,000 and is now moving sideways between $2,930–$2,980; GT, after rebounding from lower levels, is capped by resistance near $10.10 and continues to trade in a weak consolidation pattern; XRD led small-cap tokens with a surge of +60.19%. Meanwhile, South Korean authorities reported that BTC under custody may have been stolen in a phishing attack, involving around $47 million; Citi warned that the recent surge in Ethereum on-chain activity is likely driven mainly by “address poisoning” scams; and World Liberty Financial’s partnership with Spacecoin to launch the USD1 satellite DeFi project has drawn market attention.

Gate Research: BTC and ETH are consolidating at lower levels after the pullback, with downside technical pressure easing in the short term, though a clear trend reversal has yet to be confirmed. Risk appetite remains cautious: on-chain data shows whales continuing to accumulate, while sentiment indicators stay in the extreme fear zone—suggesting improving positioning but incomplete confidence recovery. Meanwhile, Ondo is bringing tokenized stocks and ETFs to Solana, further expanding RWA and on-chain securities use cases and strengthening blockchains’ capacity to host traditional financial assets. In parallel, Solayer has launched a USD 35 million ecosystem fund focused on high-performance on-chain applications, supporting both infrastructure and application layers.

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC and ETH are consolidating at lower levels, with downside pressure easing but the broader trend yet to be confirmed. Capital is rotating toward lower-volatility assets and long-term narrative plays, while on-chain data shows continued accumulation by whales and sentiment remains in the extreme fear zone. Ondo has introduced tokenized equities and ETFs to Solana, further expanding RWA and on-chain securities use cases. Solayer launched a $35 million ecosystem fund focused on high-performance on-chain applications. Vitalik Buterin proposed a native DVT design to enhance decentralization in Ethereum staking. BGB, H, and MBG are set to see sizable token unlocks over the next seven days.

In 2025, the total cryptocurrency market cap showed a clear “decline—rebound—pullback” pattern. On-chain perpetual contract trading continued to expand, with liquidity and trading experience noticeably improving. Prediction market volumes surpassed $10 billion, and the growth of crypto payments accelerated the adoption of stablecoins in real-world scenarios. The Web3 sector completed nearly 1,000 financings totaling about $34.9 billion. Although the number of Web3 security incidents declined, individual losses increased significantly. Looking ahead to 2026, Bitcoin’s holdings are increasingly concentrated among large institutions and custodians, helping to enhance overall market stability.