Bitcoin may peak in the range of $220,000 to $330,000

Analysis from Bitcoin researcher – Sminston With, implies that the peak level of BTC is still 100% to 200% away from the current price.

In a recent post on X, With shared a Bitcoin price chart using the simple moving average (SMA) adjusted to the Power Law model (R²=0.96).

Power Law shows that the price of Bitcoin follows a predictable pattern over time, not random, unlike the exponential growth models often applied to stocks and equity.

Analysis of Sminston With's Bitcoin Power Law model | Source: XThe chart shows that the 365-day SMA of Bitcoin often peaks 2 to 3 times above the Power Law trend line in each market cycle. With Bitcoin priced at $110,000 on May 27, this model predicts a potential cycle peak in the range of $220,000 to $330,000.

This forecast aligns with historical models, where Bitcoin consistently surpasses trend lines during bullish phases, providing an optimistic outlook for investors.

The second chart in the post highlights the price deviation of Bitcoin from the Power Law model, showing that the cyclical volatility remains quite high. The volatility of cryptocurrencies remains a prominent feature, likely leading to significant price fluctuations in the coming months.

In Q3/2024, With accurately predicted that Bitcoin will reach a six-figure price in January 2025, when BTC is traded around $60,000. The analysis examined each decline peak by evaluating BTC at the peak levels of the previous cycle.

The downturn phase in the investment cycle occurs when the returns of a strategy decline despite having the opportunity for widespread application. The peak occurs when the asset value drops sharply, resulting in mass profit-taking.

With also set a price target for BTC for the year 2025. Accordingly, the top asset is expected to fluctuate within the range of $199,998 to $288,211 in Q4 2025.

The profit of Bitcoin in 2025 based on the declining peaks | Source: Sminston WithThe researcher has warned that his study is based only on the last 4 market cycles and investors need to refer to it with caution.

Bitcoin drops below $108,000 as long-term holders move $4.2 billion BTC

According to Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holder (LTH) moved 4.02 billion USD BTC, the largest spending volume in the group from 1 to 5 years since February 2025.

This increase, driven by the group from 3 to 5 years (2,16 billion USD), ranks fifth in the current cycle, occurring after the previous highest spending levels of 9.25 billion USD in October 2024.

Groups of 2 to 3 years and 1 to 2 years contributed 1.41 billion USD and 450 million USD, respectively, to the total spending volume.

Source: GlassnodeAs illustrated in the chart, LTH spending often coincides with peak areas, indicating profit-taking activity, with BTC currently struggling to maintain its position above $110,000.

However, the price can be highly volatile if this movement coincides with an increase in BTC reserves on exchanges. Currently, the total amount of BTC held on exchanges continues to decrease.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has established higher highs and lower lows since the price bottomed around $74,500, and each time after reaching a new high, BTC forms a consolidation range before the next breakout occurs.

Analysis of the BTC chart - 4 hours | Source: TradingViewThe ongoing correction reflects this pattern, with a recent local bottom of $107,300, which was a local peak 10 days prior. However, a deeper correction may be imminent.

Based on historical data, anonymous trader TXMC notes that Bitcoin may soon end the weekly green candle series.

"BTC has established a consecutive series of green candles on the weekly timeframe, the longest streak that Bitcoin has achieved since 2013, before it retraces or consolidates. Last week was the 7th week."

Analysis of weekly green candle charts of Bitcoin | Source: TXMCVincent