The Bitcoin market is becoming increasingly weary - Will the price of BTC drop below 100,000 USD?

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has shown signs of bouncing back, bringing the coin closer to the important threshold of $108,000. Although this recovery brings hope to investors, the main resistance level has not yet been confirmed as support, which leaves the market still uneasy.

A concerning factor is the noticeable change in investor behavior, reflecting market fatigue. This could set the stage for a price decline, as the price may fall below $100,000.

Signs of Weakness in Profit-Taking Activity

In the previous market cycle (2020–2022), Bitcoin investors made approximately 550 billion dollars in profit thanks to several price surges, including two major waves. However, in the current cycle, total profits have exceeded 650 billion dollars, marking a higher level compared to the previous cycle. Despite achieving significant growth, the Bitcoin market may be entering a correction phase, as the growth momentum is not as strong as before.

The latest data shows that profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market has peaked, with the market currently undergoing a cooling period after the third major profit-taking event. Although investors have managed to protect their profits, the momentum driving Bitcoin's rise shows signs of weakening. As actual profits gradually decline, investor sentiment begins to shift, leading to a decrease in buying pressure.

The profit-taking trend of the Bitcoin bull market | Source: GlassnodeThe Bitcoin transaction volume also shows signs of cooling down. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transaction volume has decreased by about 32%, from a peak of 76 billion dollars at the end of May to 52 billion dollars at the end of last week. This decline accurately reflects the overall market correction trend, suggesting that the price rally of Bitcoin may be losing momentum.

The decrease in Bitcoin trading volume is a clear signal that investors are becoming increasingly cautious. As the key activity metrics of Bitcoin show signs of decline, optimism in the market weakens, leading to the likelihood that the price of Bitcoin will face downward pressure in the near future.

Total Bitcoin transfer volume | Source: GlassnodeIn the context of a calming market, investors need to closely monitor these factors, as if this trend continues, the price of Bitcoin may face deeper corrections.

What’s next for the price of Bitcoin?

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at 106,907 dollars, just below the important resistance level of 108,000 dollars. To continue maintaining its growth momentum, Bitcoin needs to break through this level and turn 108,000 dollars into a solid support level. If this happens, the price could continue to rise towards the 110,000 dollar mark and even surpass this level if the market momentum is strong enough. However, the current market sentiment remains quite fragile, and the bounce back is not entirely certain.

With the clear signs of fatigue in the market and the weakening of important performance indicators, the likelihood of Bitcoin's price declining in the near future has become more apparent. If demand does not bounce back and there is no strong momentum to push prices up, Bitcoin could fall below the 105,000 dollar level and retest the important support level of 100,000 dollars. If the downtrend continues, it could lead to a deeper correction, putting significant pressure on the market.

BTC price chart 1 day | Source: TradingViewConversely, if Bitcoin can maintain its value above important support levels, the upward trend could still be upheld. Successfully reclaiming the support level of 108,000 dollars will open up opportunities for Bitcoin to head towards 110,000 dollars. If this threshold is surpassed, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing strong growth and getting closer to the all-time high of 111,980 dollars will become even clearer. This will help sustain optimism within the investor community and reinforce market growth.

Taylor