98% of the BTC supply is profitable - Is Bitcoin about to "explode" to 200,000 USD?

The prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025 is becoming increasingly popular. The continuous growth in the value of this coin not only reflects optimism within the investment community but also indicates the risk of a market correction in the short term. These signals are causing both individual and institutional investors to be cautious in following the market situation.

Bitcoin supply profitability surges

One of the important indicators attracting the attention of analysts is the strong increase in the supply of Bitcoin in a profitable state. According to data from Glassnode, from June 22 to the recent Sunday, the percentage of profitable Bitcoin increased from 87% to 98%, indicating a strong recovery of the market. As of Tuesday, approximately 96.7% of the total Bitcoin is profitable, the highest level ever.

Although this is a positive signal regarding the increase in the value of Bitcoin, experts also believe it could lead to significant volatility in the market. As profit margins increase, many investors tend to take profits, which can cause price adjustments in the short term. Historically, strong growth spurts like this are often accompanied by sudden "landings" as investors seize the opportunity to take profits.

A typical example is from January to April of this year, the price of Bitcoin dropped from around $109,000 to $74,000, after the profitable supply reached 98.8% on January 21. These fluctuations clearly show the significant influence of market sentiment and the excessive expectations for the next growth phases.

Bitcoin: Profitability Supply Ratio | Source: Glassnode## Sustainable growth or just a "bubble"?

Although the situation seems optimistic, analysts also remind of the risk of a "bubble." The actual profit/loss ratio of Bitcoin has surged from 1.1 to 2.8 since June 22, surpassing the high band threshold of 2.4, indicating that market confidence is rising. However, this also increases the risk of a strong profit-taking if the upward momentum is not sustained.

"Although the market is reflecting strong confidence, it also signals the possibility of a correction if the upward momentum weakens."

According to experts from Glassnode, the current market is in a "cautiously optimistic" stage, with strong participation from investment institutions. However, to maintain this growth trend, continuous demand and widespread confidence from the market are the decisive factors.

Bitcoin: Actual profit/loss ratio | Source: Glassnode## Bitcoin price forecast to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. In particular, after bouncing back from the market bottom in November 2022 at only $15,500, Bitcoin has seen a strong growth to the current level of around $106,488. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards comments that the price of Bitcoin is likely to continue rising and break through important resistance, with a short term target at $140,000 and a long term target in 2025 of $200,000.

"Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year price channel," Stockmoney Lizards said in a recent post. If this forecast is accurate, Bitcoin could experience a strong breakout, pushing the value of this coin to new heights. Subsequent developments are expected to be fierce, and the market will witness unpredictable turning points.

Not only Stockmoney Lizards, but many other experts also agree with this forecast. Mags, another prominent analyst, believes that Bitcoin's breakout could trigger a strong price rally, with a short term target at the Fibonacci level of 2.618 at $155,000.

Meanwhile, forecasts from major financial institutions such as Bitwise Investment and Bernstein Research are also quite optimistic. Bitwise Investment believes that with the decline of the US Dollar Index, the price of Bitcoin could reach $200,000. Bernstein Research, with a similar viewpoint, argues that increasing demand from investment institutions through spot Bitcoin ETF funds and BTC treasury companies will be the decisive factor in driving the price of Bitcoin to this level.

Co-founder of 21st Capital, Sina, also stated that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 to $200,000 in Q4 2025, based on a mathematical model of the development of the cryptocurrency market.

The predictions that the price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 are not without basis. The strong recovery after the market downturn, along with active participation from institutions and major investors, is fueling expectations for the next bull run. However, like any financial market, Bitcoin is not without risks. Signals such as the increase in the ratio of profitable supply and the actual profit/loss ratio are causing many analysts to be concerned about the potential for short term corrections.

In summary, although the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains very bright, investors need to prepare for potential short term fluctuations that may occur in the near future.

Taylor