Is the alts season coming? Deribit analysts reveal three key trigger conditions.

Recently, the market is abuzz with rumors that the "alts season" is about to start—Ethereum (ETH) has shown a strong Rebound in price, China has launched an economic stimulus plan, and the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is heating up, all of which have made investors sense the atmosphere of a bull run. However, executives from the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit remind us that although the conditions are gradually forming, the true altcoin boom season still requires more confirmation signals.

Macroeconomic Benefits Accumulation: Policy Easing + Liquidity Recovery

Deribit Chief Business Officer Jean-David Péquignot pointed out that the global macro environment is indeed supporting the altcoin season:

Federal Reserve: Chairman Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, suggesting a possible rate cut in September.

China: Announced a new round of economic stimulus plan to boost global market risk appetite.

Péquignot explains that central bank easing policies will suppress the yields of safe-haven assets, releasing more liquidity into high-risk assets, while cryptocurrencies, as high Beta assets, often amplify the effects of stock market and liquidity cycles.

ETH leading the charge is key, but it's not enough

After Powell's speech, the price of ETH surged significantly, with a spike in funds flowing into spot ETFs, and the ETH/BTC ratio strengthened—this is usually an early signal of altcoin season.

Péquignot said: "When BTC is underperforming and ETH is leading the charge, market FOMO often spreads to more small and mid-cap alts."

However, the trading volume of small and medium market cap alts is still relatively low, and market sentiment is "cautiously optimistic" rather than fully euphoric.

Altcoin Season Index: One Big Step Away from Explosion

The CoinMarketCap altcoin season index is used to measure the proportion of the top 100 alts that have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 90 days.

Threshold for outbreak: 75 points (indicating broad market rotation)

Current value: 44 points

At the same time, BTC's market dominance remains as high as 58%, indicating that funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin, and institutional allocations have not yet shifted significantly towards altcoins.

Three Major Trigger Conditions: When is it Considered a True Alts Season?

Péquignot believes that a true altcoin season requires multiple signals to appear simultaneously:

1. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to break through → BTC has been lagging behind ETH in the long term.

2. BTC dominance has significantly decreased → funds are rotating into small and medium-sized alts.

3. The altcoin season index breaks 75 → Widespread assets experience excess returns.

In addition, the simultaneous increase in on-chain activity, social media discussion heat, and alts trading volume will also be a sign of retail funds entering the market in large numbers.

Potential Risks: Policies and Leverage are Double-Edged Swords

Although favorable conditions are gathering, analysts remind that the altcoin season's market often comes with high leverage and speculative sentiment, and any macro or market surprises could trigger a sharp decline:

Policy risk: If inflation data exceeds expectations, the central bank may tighten policies, suppressing risk assets.

Market Risk: A run on high-leverage positions and liquidation may quickly end the bull run of alts.

Conclusion

This year's altcoin season may still require some patience, but market conditions are gradually maturing. Loose macro policies, ETH leading the charge, and a recovery in liquidity are all positive signals. The real trigger point will come when the ETH/BTC ratio breaks through, BTC dominance declines, and the altcoin season index breaks through 75 points. At that time, the next wave of encryption gold rush may fully unfold. For more real-time quotes and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.