Rare! Bitcoin outflows from gold but did not benefit, both major safe-haven assets are under pressure.

Historically, the flow of funds between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU) often shows a pattern of one declining while the other rises—when BTC experiences outflows, gold typically sees an influx of safe-haven capital. However, the latest ETF data indicates that this "safe-haven rotation" norm was broken in August 2025: both assets saw simultaneous outflows, reflecting the current macroeconomic uncertainty and a shift in investor sentiment.

Historical Norms Broken: BTC and Gold Flowing Out Simultaneously

(Source: Ecoinometrics)

Traditional Model:

BTC and gold are regarded as alternative value storage tools.

When one side is sold off, the other side usually benefits from the capital transfer.

Abnormalities this month:

BTC ETF has seen a continuous outflow of funds for six days, with nearly $2 billion flowing out in August alone.

Gold ETF (such as GLDM) is experiencing capital outflows, with $449 million flowing out in a week.

End of August rebound:

BTC ETF has seen a continuous net inflow for four days during the pullback.

Gold ETF also saw net inflows in the last few days of August, indicating a subtle shift in investor sentiment.

Macro Background: Uncertainty Suppresses Dual Assets

Federal Reserve policy is unclear:

Whether to cut interest rates remains undecided.

Inflation remains stubborn, and employment growth is slowing.

Investor Psychology:

Lack of confidence in high-risk assets (BTC)

The attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets (gold) is declining.

Capital flow:

Some funds are shifting towards cash or high-yield alternatives.

The atmosphere of waiting is strong, awaiting clear signals from the September FOMC meeting.

Gold's safe-haven status wavers

Inflation and interest rate expectations change: weakening gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.

Comparison of disadvantages in returns: In a high interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like gold increases.

Relationship with BTC: The two are no longer showing inverse trends, but are facing selling pressure simultaneously.

Future Outlook: The Key Lies with the Federal Reserve

Short-term resistance:

BTC: Lack of new capital inflow, market sentiment is neutral.

Gold: The Uncertainty of Inflation and Interest Rate Trends

Potential Catalysts:

If the FOMC clearly signals a rate cut, it may simultaneously boost BTC and gold.

If the policy remains ambiguous, both may continue to consolidate or even sustain outflows.

Conclusion

Bitcoin and gold have both experienced capital outflows, breaking the long-standing rotation pattern of safe-haven assets, highlighting the current market's confusion and unease regarding the macro environment. Before the Federal Reserve's policy direction becomes clear, these two major assets may continue to face pressure, and investors need to closely monitor the September policy meeting and global economic data, as that could be the key moment to break the deadlock.