Arthur Hayes predicts: Against the backdrop of Fed liquidity expansion, Bitcoin is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, made a bold prediction at the Blockchain Conference 'KBW2025' held in South Korea, stating that the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of the year. He attributes this bullish outlook mainly to the upcoming liquidity expansion in the United States. Hayes believes that the U.S. Treasury's monetary expansion policies and the Fed's ongoing interest rate cuts will inject new funds into the crypto market, thereby driving the price of Bitcoin to soar.

1. Liquidity expansion is the core driving force behind Bitcoin's rise.

Hayes' optimistic forecast is primarily based on his assessment of U.S. macroeconomic policy. He believes that the U.S. Treasury is planning to implement a monetary expansion policy while anticipating a series of ongoing interest rate cuts by the Fed. He emphasizes that if the Treasury increases the money supply, it will have a positive short-term impact on Bitcoin, especially in the context of simultaneous rate cuts by the Fed.

However, the recent actions of the Fed are more complex than Hayes's predictions. Although some Fed officials voted to cut rates in September, they subsequently expressed reservations about further rate cuts in October during public speeches. This indicates that there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the issue of rate cuts.

2. Trump, the Fed, and Monetary Policy

Hayes predicts that Donald Trump’s efforts to remove current Fed members will ultimately be successful, and he will appoint new officials who support his policies. He believes this will eventually lead to more money printing and ongoing expansionary economic policies. "Trump is trying to clear out the forces in the Fed that oppose him and install people who agree with his policies," Hayes said.

When discussing the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin, Hayes maintained a neutral stance, believing that this theory may no longer apply or may still be valid. However, the factor he is most concerned about is liquidity. He emphasized: "As global money supply is expected to increase, market cycles are likely to be extended." This is consistent with his previous assertion that the easing of global monetary policy will be the main long-term force driving the rise of Bitcoin.

3. Analyst Trading Behavior and Their Predictions

It is worth noting that Hayes's trading behavior sometimes differs from his public statements. At the beginning of August, he publicly praised ENA, but shortly after sold his entire position worth $4.6 million. This Monday, he also liquidated his $5 million position in HYPE tokens. HYPE is the native token of the decentralized derivatives trading platform Hyperliquid, which Hayes had previously expressed optimism about. This "saying one thing and doing another" trading pattern may reflect his high sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes' bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year has undoubtedly sparked strong reactions in the market. His core argument, that Bitcoin prices are closely tied to global liquidity expansion, provides investors with an important macro perspective. However, as his own trading behavior demonstrates, macro predictions and short-term market operations are two different matters. While his analysis provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin's potential upside, investors still need to approach with caution. In a complex market driven by macroeconomic policies, political maneuvering, and market sentiment, Hayes' viewpoint serves more as a guiding beacon rather than an accurate navigation chart.