ASTER Investment Analysis Report: The Perptual Futures Rising Star Endorsed by CZ, Can It Disrupt the Decentralized Finance Derivation Market Landscape?

Recently, the decentralized Perptual Futures exchange Aster ($ASTER) has attracted the attention of global encryption investors with its remarkable market performance. Since its Token was launched on September 19, 2025, the price has skyrocketed from $0.45 to a historical high of over $2.4, with an increase of more than 400%. Even more impressive is that its daily revenue once approached $13 million, surpassing the traditional stronghold Hyperliquid in this field for the first time, marking a profound change in the competitive landscape of the on-chain derivation market. This project has received public endorsement from CZ and support from his family investment fund YZi Labs, and its narrative of "multi-chain trading + yield-generating Collateral" has made it stand out among numerous Decentralized Finance protocols.

CZ speaks again: Aster and Binance have a competitive relationship, but also help in the development of BNB.

CZ responded to a post this morning confirming that several former Binance employees are part of the Aster team, and that his family investment fund YZi Labs holds a small stake in Aster. Aster focuses on multi-chain trading, hidden orders, and the Trade & Earn mechanism, closely aligning with BNB Chain resources. Some in the community claim that Binance is Aster's only competitor, to which CZ also responded: "Few people can understand this. Aster is in competition with Binance, but it also supports the development of BNB."

Overall, CZ has expressed goodwill towards Aster in the role of an advisor (he added earlier that he is not part of the Aster team, just an advisor) as a minority shareholder, which not only consolidates BNB Chain's voice in Decentralized Finance but also adds new variables to the competition of Perptual Futures DEX. With random institutional capital continuously flowing in, projects like Aster, which have endorsements from well-known figures, are bound to play an important role in the next round of market reshuffling.

Fundamental Analysis of the Ecosystem

1. Key Metrics: TVL, Trading Volume, and User Activity

As a newly listed project, Aster's ecosystem data shows explosive early growth characteristics:

Total Locked Value (TVL) and Trading Volume: Although specific TVL data is yet to be accumulated further, its core business indicator—trading revenue—has achieved a significant breakthrough. Recently, its 24-hour revenue approached 13 million USD, surpassing Hyperliquid by several times. This indicates that despite the short time since the platform's launch, its ability to monetize unit liquidity and market attractiveness is very strong. In the past four weeks, the total trading volume of the on-chain Perptual Futures market approached 700 billion USD, with Aster playing an increasingly important role in it.

User Activity: The market attention is extremely high. Whales (investors holding large amounts of capital) have been continuously purchasing ASTER recently, for example, a whale address made a one-time purchase of tokens worth approximately 41.79 million dollars. In addition, the project has attracted a large number of users to participate through airdrops and community reward activities (such as the Aster Genesis program), demonstrating strong community drive.

2. Unique Positioning and Technical Features: Multi-chain Aggregation and Yield Innovation

Aster's core competitiveness lies in its one-stop solution designed to address the current pain points of DeFi trading experience:

Multi-chain Seamless Trading: Supports four major networks: BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum. Users can conduct spot and Perptual Futures trading without manual cross-chain operations, effectively addressing the issue of liquidity fragmentation.

“Trade and Earn” Innovation: One of its core innovations is allowing users to earn returns on collateral assets while trading. For example, users can obtain asBNB by staking BNB, allowing them to earn staking rewards while using it as trading margin; its stablecoin USDF also generates returns on centralized exchanges through a Delta-neutral strategy. This significantly enhances capital efficiency.

Hidden Order Function: To combat Maximum Extractable Value (MEV) attacks (such as front-running transactions), Aster has introduced a hidden order mechanism, making orders invisible before execution, thus protecting traders, especially the interests of large orders.

Comparison with Hyperliquid: Unlike Hyperliquid, which builds its own Layer 1 for extreme performance, Aster has chosen a multi-chain aggregation path. Hyperliquid may still have advantages in terms of performance and established liquidity, but Aster's strategy allows it to quickly leverage resources from existing major ecosystems, reaching a broader user base and providing the "trade to earn" model that Hyperliquid lacks.

3. Token Economic Model: Community-Oriented and Value Accumulation

The token economic model design of $ASTER highlights its emphasis on community-driven initiatives, but there is also a certain level of uncertainty.

Token Allocation: The total supply is 8 billion pieces. The vast majority (53.5%) is allocated for community rewards and airdrops, with 30% for ecological development and only 5% for the team. This highly community-oriented allocation method helps incentivize early adopters and build strong network effects.

Value Accumulation Mechanism: $ASTER holders can enjoy discounts on platform trading fees. CEO Leonard has announced that a token buyback plan will be revealed in the coming weeks, which is expected to become an important driving force for the rise in token value in the future. Users staking $ASTER tokens can also earn rewards.

4. Disputes and Risks: Ponzi Scheme Concerns

It is important to note that Aster also faces severe public scrutiny. Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, pointed out that the project meets seven characteristics of a "criminal Ponzi scheme", including but not limited to: lack of product innovation, a large allocation of tokens to insiders to create hype, and possible fake trading operations. At the same time, Supra CEO Joshua Tobkin questioned its level of decentralization, believing that its operation resembles that of a centralized exchange. These allegations are core risk points that investors must carefully assess before making decisions.

Technical Analysis and Development Forecast

Price Trends and Chart Patterns

Due to the short listing time of ASTER, the conditions for forming a classic long-term chart pattern are not yet sufficient. However, its price movement shows strong market momentum. After reaching a historical high of $2.4, the price entered a correction phase. The range of $0.80 to $1.00 can be seen as a key support area in the near term, and if it breaks below, it may test lower support levels. The direct resistance level above is near the historical high of $2.4.

Technical Indicator Interpretation

RSI (Relative Strength Index): After a significant rise, the RSI may have entered the overbought territory (above 70). If the recent price adjustment can bring the RSI back to the neutral strong range of 55-65, it will lay the foundation for subsequent healthy rises.

Trading Volume: The huge trading volume at the beginning of the listing indicates strong market interest. Continuous trading volume is key to determining whether the trend can continue.

Price Prediction and Target Range

Based on current market sentiment, fundamental strength, and known risks, analysts hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the future price of ASTER:

Short-term (1-3 months): If the token buyback plan is announced as scheduled and the details are positive, while the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment remains stable, the price is expected to test the previous high of $2.4 again. If it can effectively break through, the next target may be in the range of $3.0 to $3.5.

Mid-term (3-6 months): If Aster Chain's testing and launch progress smoothly and can further expand its market share, the price has the potential to challenge the range of 4.0 to 5.0 dollars.

Downside Risk: If doubts about the "Ponzi scheme" are supported by more evidence, or if the project's development falls short of expectations, the price may experience a significant pullback. The key support level of $0.80 is crucial; if it is lost, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.

Summary of Opportunities and Risks

bullish catalyst

Strong Endorsement: The support from CZ and YZi Labs has brought significant exposure and resources.

Product Innovation: Features like the "Trade and Earn" model and hidden orders directly address user pain points.

Clear Development Roadmap: A dedicated Aster Chain L1 blockchain is planned to be launched, aimed at addressing performance and MEV issues, and attracting institutional users.

Positive Token Economics: The upcoming buyback program and community incentives may continue to drive demand.

Risk Factors

Serious Fraud Allegations: The "Ponzi scheme" allegations from industry experts hang over us like the sword of Damocles.

Intense Market Competition: Mature protocols like Hyperliquid and competitors such as dYdX and GMX are constantly evolving.

Technical and Execution Risks: The complexity of cross-chain operations and the challenges of building a public chain come with uncertainties.

Market Volatility: As an emerging asset, $ASTER itself has extremely high price volatility.

Conclusion

The rise of Aster ($ASTER) is undoubtedly one of the most remarkable events in the DeFi field in 2025. With strong resource backing, innovative product design, and aggressive market strategies, it has shaken the competitive landscape of perpetual futures DEX in a short time. However, beneath the halo, sharp doubts about its business model sustainability and level of centralization are not unfounded. For investors, ASTER represents a huge opportunity to capture the growth bonus of the DeFi derivation market, but it also comes with significant potential risks. The key to the future lies in whether the project team can respond to market expectations and doubts with solid technological progress, transparent operations, and sustainable ecological growth. In this test of speed and endurance, will you choose to be a cautious observer or a bold participant?

Disclaimer: The content of this report is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment risks are extremely high. Please ensure that you conduct independent and in-depth research before making any investment decisions and fully understand your own risk tolerance.