Solana Price Prediction: Network Activity 50% Slump but Aiming for $425?

Solana is currently trading above $222, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours, with technical indicators showing a cup and handle pattern pointing to a target price of $425. However, on-chain data reveals concerning divergence: daily volume has big dumped from 125 million transactions to 64 million transactions, a fall of 50%.

JPMorgan predicts that Solana ETF will generate only $1.5 billion in revenue in its first year, far lower than Bitcoin. This article deeply analyzes the long and short positions of SOL and the key nodes in the Solana price forecast.

Solana price prediction faces contradiction: technical bullishness vs. fundamental weakness

(Source: Trading View)

Solana, as the fifth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently at a very delicate moment. On one hand, the technical charts display strong bullish signals, making many analysts optimistic about future trends; on the other hand, on-chain data reveals disturbing warnings, raising questions in the market about the sustainability of this rally. This divergence between technical and fundamental factors is the biggest source of uncertainty for the current price prediction of Solana.

In the past few weeks, the price trend of SOL has been relatively strong, successfully maintaining above the key psychological level of 222. However, upon closer examination of the on-chain data, investors will find a puzzling phenomenon: the price is rising, but the actual usage rate of the network is significantly declining. This divergence is often seen as a warning sign in the cryptocurrency market, as a healthy price increase should be accompanied by an increase in ecosystem activity, rather than the opposite. Analysts have differing interpretations of this phenomenon, which has led to much debate regarding Solana price predictions.

Network activity big dump 50%: Driven by speculation or technical adjustment?

According to the latest statistics from the on-chain data tracking platform, Solana's daily volume has experienced a dramatic decline. From a peak of approximately 125 million transactions on July 24, 2025, it has plummeted to around 64 million transactions, a fall of nearly 50%. This data has left many investors concerned about Solana price predictions, as it indicates that price momentum is diverging from the underlying network utilization.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Onchain pointed out that under normal circumstances, a healthy price increase should be associated with greater usage of the ecosystem. This includes an increase in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities, a rise in NFT volume, and an increase in the frequency of transfers among users. When these indicators rise in sync with the price, it indicates that market demand is real and sustainable. However, the current discrepancy suggests that the rise of SOL may be more driven by speculative funds rather than an actual increase in application demand.

However, interpreting Solana's volume data requires special caution. Due to the characteristics of Solana's consensus mechanism, historically, 80% to 90% of on-chain transactions are voting transactions necessary for network consensus, rather than actual economic activities initiated by users. If this drop in volume is mainly due to technical adjustments or optimizations of the validator node voting system, rather than a decrease in real user activity, then the main concerns of the market may have been overstated. This subtlety at the technical level is often a blind spot that general investors easily overlook when making price predictions for Solana.

The market is currently waiting for more segmented data to clarify the truth. If the Total Value Locked (TVL) of DeFi protocols, the volume of decentralized exchanges, and the activity level of the NFT market maintain stability or growth, then the decline in total volume may just be a technical factor. However, if these indicators reflecting real user activity also decline simultaneously, then concerns about the price of SOL become even more reasonable.

Cup and Handle pattern points to $425: Optimistic outlook from technical analysis

Despite concerns raised by fundamental data, technical analysts have painted a vastly different picture for Solana price predictions. Well-known cryptocurrency expert Lark Davis stated that a classic cup and handle pattern is currently forming after analyzing Solana's monthly chart, which is one of the most reliable bullish signals in technical analysis. If this pattern successfully breaks out, based on Fibonacci extension calculations, SOL's target price could reach $425, representing nearly a 90% upside from the current price.

Not just a single pattern supports this optimistic Solana price prediction. The monthly MACD indicator is forming a golden cross, which is a strong momentum signal that usually indicates the beginning of a long-term upward trend. In the world of technical analysis, a MACD golden cross, especially when it occurs over longer time frames (such as monthly), tends to have a higher predictive accuracy because it filters out short-term noise and reflects more fundamental trend changes.

From the moving average system perspective, SOL is currently above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and these moving averages are all aligned upwards, forming what is known as a "bullish arrangement" pattern. This structure indicates that market sentiment is generally optimistic, with buying across different time periods being in a profit state, providing multi-level support for the price. From a technical perspective, as long as this structure is not broken, the price prediction for Solana should lean towards bullish.

After just breaking through 240 US dollars, SOL is currently in a consolidation phase, which is technically healthy. The price needs time to digest profit-taking after a significant rise, allowing new buying positions to be established at higher price levels. This kind of fluctuation is usually not a signal of the end of the uptrend, but rather a potential buildup before the next wave of attack. Technical analysts believe that if SOL can complete the consolidation in the current range, the next target for attack will be the psychological resistance level of 250 US dollars.

Key Support and Resistance: The Battle to Defend $210 Determines Short-Term Fate

Among the numerous Solana price predictions, almost all analysts agree on the key importance of the $210 to $215 range. According to the position of the 50-day moving average, this range constitutes the most important support zone for SOL in the near term. If the price can hold this level, it indicates that buyers are still in control, and the market is confident in absorbing chips at higher price levels, which will lay the foundation for another challenge of the $240 to $250 resistance range.

The formulation of short-term trading strategies must revolve around these key price levels. Conservative investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of the $210 support. Once the price clearly falls below this level and cannot quickly recover, it should be considered to reduce positions or set stop losses to protect profits. Historical data shows that strong support has often appeared around $200, where the momentum of rapid declines has reversed, and subsequently, long positions have gained over 16%, proving the strategic significance of this price range.

If SOL successfully breaks through the resistance level of 250 USD, the next target will be 280 USD, which was the high reached at the end of 2024. Breaking through the previous high usually triggers a new round of chasing funds entering the market, as it confirms the continuation of the upward trend and triggers buy signals for many technical investors. In the most optimistic Solana price prediction scenario, if all resistance levels are smoothly broken, the theoretical target of 425 USD based on the cup and handle pattern will become possible.

However, the risks also need to be acknowledged. If it clearly breaks below the $210 support, it could trigger a larger correction, with target levels potentially dropping to $190 or even lower. In this scenario, market sentiment may quickly turn pessimistic, and previous technical bullish signals could be seen as false breakouts. At this time, concerns about a 50% decline in on-chain activity will resurface as the dominant narrative, further intensifying selling pressure.

JPMorgan Cools Expectations: Solana ETF Forecasts Are Far Below Bitcoin

Just at the moment when the market is full of imagination about Solana, Wall Street giant JPMorgan released a relatively conservative research report, adding new variables to the price prediction of Solana. Although the market speculation about the approval of Solana ETF has filled many investors with hope, JPMorgan's analysts believe that even if the Solana ETF is successfully launched, its performance will lag far behind that of Bitcoin and Ethereum's spot ETF products.

According to a model forecast by JPMorgan, the Solana ETF could bring in about 1.5 billion dollars in capital inflow during its first year, a figure that seems substantial at first glance. However, it pales in comparison to the 36 billion dollars for the Bitcoin ETF and the 8.7 billion dollars during the early days of the Ethereum ETF. This suggests that the market should not hold overly high expectations for the price-driving effects of ETF approval, which contrasts with many optimistic Solana price predictions.

J.P. Morgan has identified two main structural barriers. The first is the issue of investor fatigue. Following the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, institutional investors and traditional funds have significantly reduced their enthusiasm for cryptocurrency ETFs. The market has transitioned from the excitement of 'first contact with cryptocurrency' to the maturity phase of 'selective allocation', making it difficult for subsequent products to replicate the explosive appeal of the first two.

Secondly, there is a difference in the perception of importance. In the eyes of institutional investors, Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and Ethereum's position as "the leading smart contract platform" have already been relatively established. However, although Solana has advantages in technical performance, it is still regarded in narrative as "one of Ethereum's competitors" rather than "a unique must-have asset." This difference in perception directly affects the priority of institutional allocation, thereby limiting the potential scale of capital inflow.

In addition, JPMorgan pointed out that several cryptocurrency fund management companies are currently providing exposure to SOL in the form of stocks, such as publicly traded companies or cryptocurrency funds that hold a large amount of Solana. The launch of ETF products may siphon off funds from these existing channels rather than bringing in entirely new incremental funds. This characteristic of "stock competition" rather than "incremental expansion" further lowers expectations for the effects of Solana ETFs.

Solana Price Prediction: Balancing the Vision of $425 with Real-World Risks

From a dual perspective of technical analysis and fundamentals, the current price prediction for Solana shows a high degree of uncertainty. In an optimistic scenario, if SOL can maintain above the key support level of $210, the cup and handle pattern is fully realized, and with the momentum support from the MACD golden cross, the price could gradually rise to $280 in the coming months, even challenging the Fibonacci target of $425. This trend requires a continuous improvement in market risk appetite, the continuation of the overall cryptocurrency bull market, and the Solana ecosystem to demonstrate sufficient growth momentum to support its valuation.

However, the cautious scenario is equally worth noting. The warning signal of a 50% decline in online activity cannot be ignored. If subsequent data continues to show a shrinking of real user activity while prices are still rising, this divergence will eventually be corrected. Historical experience tells us that the divergence between fundamentals and prices often ends with prices returning to the fundamentals, rather than the other way around. If the support at 210 dollars is lost, it may trigger a chain of stop losses, leading to a rapid price correction to 190 dollars or even lower.

Conservative traders should adopt a defensive strategy, closely monitor the effectiveness of the support level between $210 and $215, and set strict stop-loss points below that level to protect profits. For investors who already hold SOL, it may be worth considering reducing some positions near the current price level to lock in some profits while retaining a certain amount of position to participate in potential upward trends. This "pyramid" position management strategy can protect against downside risk while not completely missing out on possible upward opportunities.

Investors who are ambitious and believe in the $425 target need to pay attention to two key confirmation signals. First, the price must cleanly break through the $250 resistance level and be able to hold above that position for at least a week to confirm the validity of the breakout. Second, network activity indicators must show signs of improvement, whether through a rebound in total volume or growth in core indicators such as DeFi locked value and NFT trading volume. Only when technical breakouts occur alongside fundamental improvements can the optimistic scenario for Solana's price prediction have true sustainability.

In the coming weeks, the market will be watching to see if Solana's technical strength can compensate for its divergence from fundamentals, or if the decline in network activity will ultimately drag down price performance. This confrontation between the technical and fundamental camps will provide the final answer for Solana price predictions.