Dual-track market: The rush for safe-haven assets drives up gold and silver, while Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen to a ten-year low, poised for a rebound.

Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, escalating China-U.S. trade frictions, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, investors are flocking to tangible store of value assets. During the Asian trading session, gold and silver continued to rise, reflecting strong risk aversion sentiment. Meanwhile, despite Bitcoin's price falling below $113,000, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have dropped to the lowest level since 2015 (around 2.4 million BTC), indicating that despite short-term price weakness, investors are making strong long-term accumulations, and the market is undergoing a healthy deleveraging and tightening of supply.

Macroeconomic Risks Intensify: Gold and Silver Supported by Multiple Positive Factors Strongly Rise

The uncertainty in the global market continues to ferment during the Asian trading session, driving gold and silver to rise as traditional safe-haven assets. This round of precious metal rise is driven by three intertwined macro risks:

· The U.S. fiscal deadlock undermines confidence

The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and the fiscal impasse in Washington is eroding investors' confidence in the recent economic stability. A commodity strategist based in Singapore stated, "The shutdown has intensified perceptions of fiscal fragility, while macroeconomic pressures were already high at this time." The Senate has yet to approve a funding plan, and traders are still hedging against the potential long-term impacts of the policy deadlock.

· The expectation of interest rate cuts and trade friction provide momentum

Market data shows that traders have fully digested the Fed's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and anticipate a 90% probability of another rate cut in December. A lower interest rate environment weakens the dollar and increases the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Meanwhile, despite a softening in rhetoric between the U.S. and China following tariff threats, trade tensions continue to drive capital into gold, which has historically been seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic shocks.

· The strengthening of the dollar did not prevent the rise of gold and silver.

It is noteworthy that the resilience of the dollar has hardly managed to curb the rise of precious metals. Although the dollar index remains close to a two-month high, gold prices continue to climb, reflecting the strong momentum of safe-haven flows. The market is currently turning its attention to the upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Powell in search of further clues regarding the trajectory of monetary policy.

Short-term Technical Analysis and Price Forecast for Gold and Silver

Short-term predictions indicate that gold and silver will maintain their upward momentum and show a trend of consolidation.

· Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook

Gold is currently trading around $4,108, having slightly retreated from an intraday high of around $4,180, but it remains in an overall rising trend.

Support level: The 50-day EMA is at $4,040, and the 200-day EMA is at $3,895. The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate immediate support at $4,090 (38.2%) and $4,062 (50%).

Prediction: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 59, indicating that after the overbought condition, momentum is cooling down, and a short-term consolidation may occur. If gold stays above 4,060 USD, it may rebound to 4,180 USD and could reach 4,220 USD. A drop below 4,040 USD could lead to a deep correction to 3,995 USD.

· Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook

Silver is currently trading around $51.49, having pulled back from the resistance level near $53.44 after a strong rise, and is within an ascending channel.

Support level: The 50-day EMA is at $49.36, providing dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA is at $45.01, reinforcing the broader rise trend.

Forecast: RSI is close to 57, and momentum has eased, indicating a short-term consolidation. If buyers can hold the middle line of the channel, silver may rebound to $53.40, and if it breaks that level, the target is $54.44 to $55.57. A closing price below $49.70 may indicate a deeper pullback toward $48.50.

Bitcoin Supply Crisis? Exchange Balances Drop to Ten-Year Low

Despite Bitcoin's price falling below $113,000 and being affected by sell-offs triggered by tariff news last week, on-chain data reveals that the market is accumulating long-term pump momentum. Last week, Bitcoin's price fell by about 10%, trading between $109,883 and $125,023, down 9% from the all-time high of $126,080 on October 6.

· Exchange reserves hit a new low since 2015

CryptoQuant contributor Chairman Lee pointed out in an analysis on October 14 that the amount of Bitcoin stored in Centralized Exchanges has dropped to about 2.4 million BTC, the lowest level since 2015. In 2020, this figure exceeded 3.5 million BTC. This ongoing steady decline marks one of the most consistent withdrawal trends in Bitcoin's history. Analysts note that when the number of tokens available for trading decreases, sell pressure tends to ease. Historically, such supply tightening usually occurs before significant rebounds, as seen in 2020 and 2021. As long-term holders, institutional investors, and ETFs continue to move Bitcoin to regulated custody and cold wallets, the supply of Bitcoin will tighten further, indicating that despite short-term price weakness, the underlying structure remains solid.

· Deleveraging resets to pave the way for a rebound

Another analysis by XWIN Research Japan compared the recent liquidations to past recovery periods. Following the news of new tariffs between China and the U.S., leveraged positions worth approximately $19 billion were cleared on October 10. Bitcoin briefly fell to $104,000 but then stabilized. Historical experience suggests that large-scale liquidation events, like in 2021, often represent a "reset" of the market rather than a destruction. Once the leverage is cleared, spot demand typically returns, and prices rebound accordingly. On-chain data shows that the funding rate has normalized, and the key profit ratio aSOPR has risen above 1.0, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from panic to accumulation.

· Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Long-term Support is Strong

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin is currently in a cautious zone, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44, indicating neutral momentum. Although most short-term moving averages (10 to 50 days) suggest moderate selling pressure, the 200-day moving average (around $108,000) provides solid support. As long as Bitcoin can hold this area, its long-term upward structure will remain intact. A breakout of the $116,000 to $118,000 range will signal new strength and may reopen the path to $125,000.

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Conclusion

The current market shows significant dual-track differentiation: traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver are soaring due to macroeconomic uncertainty, while high-risk assets like Bitcoin are undergoing a critical "healthy reset" during the correction. The signal of Bitcoin exchange balances falling to a ten-year low clearly indicates that supply is being locked up. Despite short-term price weakness, the long-term bullish foundation is very solid. Investors should pay attention to the safe-haven trends of precious metals while examining the strategic value brought by Bitcoin's on-chain accumulation, using $108,000 as a key defensive line for the long-term structure.

This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.