Can November "Moonvember" replace October "Uptober"?

Crypto analyst Lark Davis calls November the “strongest month for Bitcoin,” with an average increase of about 42%. However, the heat map chart shows the median figure is much lower — and most of this average increase comes from an unusually strong year early in history.

The two phrases “Uptober” and “Moonvember” originate from slang in the crypto community, spreading on platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram through various market cycles.

“Uptober” is used humorously to describe the phenomenon of October often rebounding after a sideways movement in late summer, particularly noted in years when October actually breaks out strongly.

“Moonvember” is the next phase, used by traders and KOLs to promote a continued surge at the end of the year.

These phrases are both meme-like and a way of viral communication — they reappear every fall, regardless of whether the actual prices are moving in the right direction.

Data from CoinGlass heat map

The monthly profit chart of Bitcoin on CoinGlass shows an average increase of around 40% for November, calculated as the average from 2013 to 2025. However, this figure is significantly inflated by a spike of 449% in November 2013. If we exclude the impact of those unusual years, the median profit for November is only about 9%, which more accurately reflects the “normal” results for this month.

The seasonal effect of November has a large dispersion. Some years have seen a decrease ( such as 2021 and 2022), while other years have seen a strong increase ( such as 2024). This difference suggests that the observation “November is usually strong” should only be regarded as a historical observation, not a forecast. It describes price behavior over cycles, rather than predicting anything about the future.

Understanding Seasonal Variability Correctly

When citing seasonal data, both the mean (mean), median (median), and historical volatility range should be considered. The use of the figure “average 42%” to estimate potential price should only be seen as an illustration, not a target.

In reality, traders often wait for confirmation signals on the chart — such as breaking through important price zones, changes in market breadth, or trading volume — before taking action based on seasonal factors.

After a rare red finish in October, many people on X have revived the term “Moonvember”, citing data from the heat map showing that November tends to see strong average increases. However, many analysts emphasize caution: while the average sounds impressive, the median better reflects reality, and prices need to prove themselves through market action.

This perspective helps keep the discussion focused — being referential and providing context, rather than a tool for timing trades.

Thạch Sanh