Bitcoin Analyst Flags Key Change as EMA50 Break Breaks Pattern

Bitcoin trading below the EMA50 during a death cross is a structural break from past cycles where the level consistently held as support.

ETFs and whales are reducing exposure simultaneously, creating combined sell pressure unlike earlier corrections where whales absorbed outflows.

Macro stress signals and early extreme fear readings suggest the downturn may not be finished, aligning with Doctor Profit’s fully hedged positioning.

Bitcoin’s latest downturn sparked renewed scrutiny after analyst Doctor Profit argued that market structure has changed in a way previous cycles did not show. He pointed to the weekly EMA50, also known as the “golden line,” which historically acted as a consistent support zone during the entire 2024–2025 cycle

According to his review, Bitcoin held above that level during every major correction, including periods when death crosses appeared. However, Bitcoin now trades below the EMA50, creating a setup he described as fundamentally different from earlier events. This shift led him to challenge claims that the latest death cross could trigger a bounce similar to 2023, 2024, or April 2025.

Recent Death Cross

The discussion expanded as he noted that previous death crosses formed while Bitcoin traded above the EMA50. For example, the April 2025 cross occurred with price 12% above that level. Notably, the August 2024 cross formed with Bitcoin 17% above the EMA50. Each time, the market bounced between 25% and 60% in the following months

However, Doctor Profit noted that Sunday’s death cross emerged while Bitcoin sat 6% below the EMA50. This difference created a break from earlier patterns and supported his view that the latest cross reflects genuine bearish pressure, not a setup for recovery.

ETF Outflows and Whale Activity

This bearish structure connects directly to broader flows across major holders. According to his assessment, ETFs are currently selling, while whale net volume also shows negative readings. Earlier corrections showed a different pattern as whales accumulated when ETFs sold

However, both groups now reduce exposure at the same time, adding combined pressure to the market. He added that the average buyer from the last six months entered around $94,600. Price movement back toward that level, or below it, could increase selling because short-term traders often exit near breakeven.

Market Structure Changes as Macro Stress Builds

These flows link to broader macro concerns that he previously outlined, including pressure in the repo market. He argued that current conditions resemble early-stage stress rather than a completed correction

Furthermore, he noted that extreme fear readings do not confirm a bottom when a bearish phase starts. He referenced the drop from $68,000 to $50,000 in 2021, when extreme fear appeared early and deeper losses followed. According to his current positioning, he remains entirely in USDT with shorts averaging near $119,000.

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