XRP copying the 2017 script? Traders: After breaking through, replay the 1440% surge myth

XRP price has been hovering around $2 for several days, forming a critical technical stalemate. From the daily chart, the sharp decline over the past few months has created a descending wedge pattern, with the price narrowing near $2. Well-known trader Steph is Crypto pointed out that the current trend is remarkably similar to the accumulation phase in 2017, when XRP surged from $0.25 to $3.84, a gain of 1440%.

Technical Deadlock: $2.20 as a Key Threshold

(Source: Trading View)

Currently, XRP is caught in a clear technical deadlock. The price has repeatedly bounced off support near $2 but lacks enough momentum to break through the latest selling pressure. From the chart structure, the descending wedge is a typical bullish continuation pattern, but only a breakout upward can confirm it. This pattern features lower lows and lower highs, with the decline gradually slowing, forming a contracting wedge structure.

Why is $2.20 so critical? This level is the resistance line at the upper boundary of the descending wedge and has been tested multiple times recently without success. Technical analysis indicates that if the price breaks above $2.20, it could completely reverse the current bearish structure and potentially trigger XRP’s next major rally. Such a breakout needs to be accompanied by increased volume to be validated; a breakout on low volume might be a false signal.

If the breakout succeeds, the first target will be the 200-day moving average at $2.44, a key mid-term trend level. Based on the current price, this represents about a 20% rapid upside potential. More importantly, once above $2.44, the technical outlook will shift from a mid-term downtrend to an uptrend, attracting trend followers and possibly pushing the price further toward the $3 mark.

However, risks are equally evident. If XRP falls below support at $2, it would undermine the bullish potential of the descending wedge, possibly triggering stop-losses and panic selling. In this scenario, the price could retest the previous accumulation point around $1.70, about 15% below the current level. In an extreme case, if $1.70 also breaks, the price could further decline to $1.50 or lower.

Scenario Analysis for Breakout Directions

Bullish Breakout Path

Break above $2.20 → test $2.44 (200-day MA) → challenge the $3 psychological level → if momentum continues, historical rally could repeat

Conditions Needed: increased volume, Bitcoin stability, market risk appetite returning

Bearish Breakdown Path

Fall below $2 → retest the $1.70 accumulation level → if lost, may drop to $1.50 or lower

Trigger Factors: Bitcoin sharp decline, regulatory negative news, ETF capital outflows

Sideways Continuation Possibility

If the price consolidates between $2 and $2.20, it could form a more complex ranging pattern, prolonging the period before a breakout.

Historical Similarity: Can the 2017 Script Repeat?

(Source: Trading View)

Renowned trader Steph is Crypto recently shared a chart showing that the current trend bears a striking resemblance to XRP’s accumulation phase in 2017, when the token was trading at only $0.25. Subsequently, a massive rally occurred, with XRP reaching a historical high of $3.84 in January 2018, delivering up to 1440% returns for those who bought during the last major accumulation phase.

Steph observed that after XRP broke the $1.70 level this year, a similar accumulation pattern has emerged. This technical similarity includes: repeated oscillations near key levels, decreasing volume forming a contracting triangle, and changes in holder distribution structure. Historical data suggests that such accumulation phases are often periods of large institutional accumulation, which, once completed, trigger trend-driven rallies.

However, historical similarity does not guarantee repetition. The market environment in 2017 was vastly different from today. Back then, the crypto market was in its early stages, retail FOMO was intense, and regulatory frameworks were not yet established. Currently, the market is much more mature, with increased institutional participation, stricter regulation, and XRP facing uncertainties related to SEC litigation (though recent developments have eased tensions).

Nevertheless, Steph’s bold prediction is that cryptocurrencies could start to move in the coming months, especially if adoption continues to accelerate. If momentum builds, XRP might replicate the explosive rally of 2017, but investors should carefully assess the differences between the current environment and historical cycles.

Key Catalysts and Risk Factors

XRP’s future movement depends not only on technical factors but also on fundamentals and market sentiment. Potential catalysts include: progress in Ripple’s partnerships with financial institutions, approval expectations for XRP ETFs, and continued friendly policies toward cryptocurrencies by the Trump administration. If these factors align, they could provide strong momentum to break through $2.20.

Conversely, risks should not be overlooked. A deep correction in Bitcoin could drag XRP down with it. Additionally, regulatory uncertainties, though somewhat alleviated, are not fully resolved; any negative news could trigger sell-offs. Market liquidity tends to be lower during the year-end holidays, which may amplify price volatility.

For traders, the current XRP presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Conservative strategies include waiting for a clear breakout above $2.20 before entering, while aggressive traders might consider scaling in near support at $2, but must set strict stop-losses below $1.95.