Fluctuation in a tight range for the Australian dollar in preparation for GDP data and stimulus from major Asian countries

(1) The Aussie held in a tight range Fluctuation on Monday as data raised the risk of negative growth last quarter, while traders bracing for the release of new economic targets and policy stimulus measures for this year by major Asian countries. (2) AUD/USD is currently down 0.14%, trading around 0.6515, rebounding 0.4% on Friday as weak US data boosted bets on a June rate cut. However, the Australian dollar still closed 0.6% lower last week, with support near $0.6488. (3) NZD/USD fell 0.16% to $0.6095, down 1.5% last week, finding support at the 200-day moving average at $0.6076. (4) Australia’s business inventories fell 1.7% in the fourth quarter, data showed on Monday, meaning they may have reduced economic growth by 1.0%. Analysts had expected the economy to grow modestly by 0.2% in the quarter, but weak inventories raised the risk of an economic contraction. (5) Stephen Wu, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said, “This is a bigger detriment to economic growth than we expected.” ” (6) Wednesday’s GDP report will be closely watched by the market to determine the timing of the RBA’s first rate cut this year. So far, the RBA’s overall rate cut is expected to be modest, with the first rate cut in September. (7) Another key risk for the ANZ currency this week is the meeting of the Asian powers on Tuesday, when the governments of the major Asian countries will announce new stimulus measures and set GDP targets. (8) Nomura analysts said, “The market hopes that the governments of major Asian countries will announce promising GDP growth targets and more expansionary fiscal spending plans”