CITIC Securities: Inflection point of crude oil supply and demand or strengthening trend of cost pricing

Golden Data News on September 19th, CITIC Securities research report indicated that weak demand and increased supply led to a significant decline in oil prices recently, and the global oil supply and demand balance may turn around in 2025. In the medium to long term, with the gradual weakening impact of geopolitical events, under the state of basic balance between supply and demand, oil prices may return to the cost pricing stage. Referring to the cost of shale oil and the fiscal breakeven oil price of OPEC, Brent crude oil prices at 60-65 USD/barrel could form support. Considering the existence of local geopolitical events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, and with the arrival of winter heating demand, Brent oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to fluctuate between 65-75 USD/barrel. In the medium to long term, it is still necessary to follow the pace of OPEC supply release and the disruption of local geopolitical events. Despite the phased adjustment of commodity prices, the valuation advantage of stocks and their dividend attributes will continue to make them the preferred direction in the market.