Standard Chartered: Whether Trump wins the election will determine the rise of the US dollar.

On October 24th, Jin10 News reported that Standard Chartered Bank estimates that 60% of the USD’s rise in October is related to bets on Trump’s winning the November 5th election. The US Dollar Index has risen by more than 3% this month and is expected to have its best single-month performance since 2022. Many analysts believe that Trump’s election as president will boost the US dollar given the prospects of high tariffs and the resulting market fluctuations, which often benefit safe-haven assets. Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 Forex Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that as the likelihood of Trump’s victory rises, the US dollar will strengthen, which will have a greater impact on forex than on fixed income. Englander estimates that the market expects Trump’s chances of winning to be close to 70%. If this is confirmed and there is a split in Congress, there will be room for profit-taking in the market. If the Republicans win control of both houses of Congress, it could have an impact on the market.