Ping An Securities: It is expected that the overall net profit growth rate of listed banks will be 1% in 2025.

On December 13, Jinshi Data reported that Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report for the banking industry in 2025, stating that looking ahead to 2025, the situation of insufficient effective demand and continued pressure on asset pricing levels will still be important factors restricting the upward flexibility of bank profitability. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of insufficient effective demand on the scale growth rate still exists. It is expected that the annual new credit scale in 2025 will be 17.9 trillion to 19.2 trillion yuan, corresponding to a year-end growth rate of 7.0%-7.5%. The scale effect will slightly drop. On the other hand, the level of interest spread is also restricted by the downward adjustment of asset pricing levels. Factors such as LPR reduction, adjustment of stock mortgages, and implicit debt replacement will continue to impact asset pricing. However, considering the accelerated speed of LPR reduction for listed deposits, the improvement of deposit repricing progress, and the accelerated release of cost-side dividends through manual interest adjustments and interbank liabilities, it is expected that the annual interest spread in 2025 will narrow slightly. In terms of asset quality, it is expected to remain stable. The continuous efforts of policies will underpin risks, and core indicators are expected to remain stable. Provision is expected to continue to support profitability. Overall, it is expected that the net profit growth rate of listed banks in 2025 will be 1.0%.