📉 Bitcoin plummeted after Powell's speech, and the short- and medium-term bearish signal is clear!

Price fluctuations: plummeted from 86,000 to 83,050, rebounded from 84,700 and then fell back to 83,800, with a 24-hour amplitude of more than 3%.

Core bearish factors

1️⃣ Fed hawkish crackdown:
Powell emphasized "priority inflation control" and postponed interest rate cut expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes dived, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks rose to 0.68, triggering panic selling.

- The Fed slowed its balance sheet reduction (from 25bn/month to $5bn/month), but USD liquidity remained tight, with Barclays warning that "stronger USD exacerbates selling pressure".

2️⃣ Technical Break:
The 4-hour chart fell below the key support of 84,000, and if it fails to regain 84,700, it may test 82,000, or even the strong support of $76,500 predicted by Standard Chartered.

3️⃣ Deterioration of the financial situation:

- The contract market liquidated more than $500 million in 24 hours, the perpetual contract funding rate turned negative, and the confidence of the bulls collapsed.
- Exchange Bitcoin balances fell to their lowest level since 2018, but on-chain data showed an accelerated sell-off by short-term holders, with limited support for long-term holdings.

Short- to medium-term outlook

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): 83000-84700 range contention, a break below 83000 will open a downside channel with the target of 81500.
- Medium-term (1-3 months): A failure to cut interest rates at the June Fed meeting, or a delay in ETF approval by the SEC could trigger a systemic sell-off.
- Risk warning: U.S. election year policy uncertainty intensifies, and it is necessary to be wary of falling below 76500 to trigger a chain reaction.

Suggested actions

- Short order strategy: 84000-84500 range light short test, stop loss 84700, target 82000.
- Hedging option: Stay away from contracts in the short term, spot holders can reduce their positions to less than 30% in batches.
- Long-term layout: If it goes down to the 76,500-80,000 range, you can gradually open positions, and the halving cycle (May 2025) may become a turning point.

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