💸 Fengshen Chat Trading — #BTC  2025.09.19

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation
Technically, BTC is still oscillating within the range of 114300-119200 today, with short-term bulls in the lead, but there is significant resistance around 117900; as long as it does not break below the bottom of the range, the short-term bias remains bullish, targeting 118000-192000 (if it breaks out with volume, higher targets can be considered).

2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
ETF / Institutional Inflows: In recent days, there has been a continuous net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Industry tracking shows that the total inflow this month has reached hundreds of millions of dollars, with institutional buying being the main driving force behind the current upward movement.

Whales/On-chain behavior: Recent reports from on-chain monitoring indicate that "whales are cashing out in batches at high levels" and "institutional addresses are partially moving to cold wallets" coexist simultaneously, suggesting a short-term profit-taking and long-term allocation occurring in parallel, which may amplify intraday volatility.

Short-term hint: ETF inflows provide ammunition, but funds are rotating between different products (some products also have small outflows), so there will still be fluctuations in the market.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Ideas
Bull (Main Strategy)
Condition: Price retraces to 114300–115000 and shows signs of stopping the decline (lower shadow or engulfing). [Aggressive traders may consider entering early at 115700]
Stop Loss: If it is "actually broken" and effectively closes below 114300, exit completely.
Target: First target 118000–118500. If there is a breakout with volume above and it stabilizes, continue to look towards around 123000.

Short (Alternative)
Condition: Price rushes to the 118000–119200 resistance zone but does not break out, showing an upper shadow or engulfing pattern.
Stop Loss: If the price breaks through and closes above 119200, immediately exit the short position with a stop loss.
Objective: Review the recent 114300–115000
Position Reminder: Increase in batches, strictly adhere to daily risk control.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
Continuous inflow into ETFs is bullish, but on-chain whales cashing out, dollars, or macro sudden events can quickly change direction. Strict stop-loss, do not concentrate positions.



[For reference only, not investment advice]