ETH Market Analysis on October 3rd

Comprehensive Technical Analysis

1. Trend and Position Analysis

· Long-term trend: Absolute bullish trend. The price is far above all major EMAs, especially the EMA180 (3509.33) which provides strong long-term support. From the price ladder at the bottom of the chart (from 1825 to 4955), ETH has already experienced a significant increase.
· Short-term trend: high-level fluctuations and corrections. The current price has retraced from the high of 4781.72 to 4475, which is a correction in the upward process. EMA5 and EMA30 are almost overlapping near 4295, indicating that short-term costs are concentrated, which is a very critical support area.

2. Moving Average System Analysis

· Bullish Alignment: Although there is a short-term adjustment, the pattern of EMA5 > EMA30 > EMA72 > EMA180 remains intact, indicating that the overall upward trend has not been broken.
· Key support: The 4290-4300 area is the short-term lifeline, where there is double support from EMA5 and EMA30. As long as the price stays above this area, the short-term trend remains strong.

3. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Positive Signal: This is the most noteworthy highlight in the current chart. Although the DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis (indicating that the medium-term momentum was weak), the MACD histogram has turned positive (12.94), and the DIF (-35.3) has crossed above the DEA (-48.2), forming a "golden cross" signal.
· Meaning: This usually indicates a exhaustion of downward momentum, with new upward momentum starting. This golden cross occurs after a high-level correction, increasing the validity of the signal.

4. Volume Analysis

· The current trading volume is 9.878 billion, higher than the 5-day and 10-day averages, indicating that trading has been active during this pullback, which may be a sign of a turnover behavior, accumulating energy for the subsequent rise.

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Market Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): continuation of the upward trend after consolidation

1. Reason: Long-term trend is intact + MACD golden cross + volume support.
2. Path: The price may experience a brief consolidation between the current position (4475) and the key support area (4290) to digest short-term selling pressure. Afterwards, driven by a MACD golden cross, it will test the previous high of 4781 again, likely breaking through, heading towards 4955 or even higher targets.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Deep pullback to strong support

1. Reason: There has been a significant increase previously, leading to a demand for profit-taking.
2. Path: If the key support zone at 4290 is broken, it may trigger further sell-offs, looking for support at the next strong support area of 4080 (near EMA72). However, as long as it does not drop below 4080, the long-term upward trend remains intact.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Trend reversal

· Continuously breaking below the support levels of 4080 and 3509 (EMA180). Given the current strong moving average system and the MACD golden cross signal, the likelihood of this happening now is extremely low.

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Trading Recommendations

· For bulls/onlookers:
· Ideal entry point: Accumulate positions near the support area of 4300-4350.
· Radical approach: Current price (4475) can also be entered with a small position, but the stop loss needs to be set further away.
· Key Signal: A clear signal to add positions occurs when the volume breaks through the previous high of 4781.
· For short positions:
· Under the current technical situation, shorting against the trend carries extremely high risks. Caution should be exercised.
· Risk Control Points:
· Long stop loss: If it effectively breaks below the 4250-4280 area, consider stopping loss and exiting, as this indicates that the short-term trend may be disrupted.
· Target: First target 4780, second target 4950.

Conclusion: This chart shows that ETH is undergoing a healthy technical correction after experiencing a significant surge. The golden cross formed below the zero line on the MACD is a strong bullish signal, indicating that the correction may be nearing its end and a new rally is about to begin. The strategy should focus on buying on dips, while closely monitoring the critical support level of 4290.