ETH Market Analysis on October 3

1. Trend Analysis

· Clear bullish pattern: Price is above all EMAs, showing a typical bullish arrangement.
· Strong support from moving averages:
· EMA5(4,359) > EMA10(4,297) > EMA30(4,305) > EMA72(4,093)
· Each period's EMA is diverging upwards, indicating a healthy trend
· Price position: Increased significantly from a low of 2,192 to 4,480, with an increase of over 100%, currently close to the previous high of 4,752.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Golden Cross Signal Confirmation:
· DIF(-14.44) has crossed above DEA(-41.59)
· The MACD histogram has turned positive at 26.95
· This is a strong bullish signal indicating that the downward momentum is fading and the upward momentum is strengthening.
· Position Analysis: The MACD golden cross occurs below the zero axis but is rising rapidly, which usually indicates the beginning of a strong rebound.

3. Volume Analysis

· Major risk signal: The current trading volume of 2.108 billion is far lower than the 5-day average of 18.421 billion and the 10-day average of 19.004 billion.
· Divergence between price and volume: Price is rising but trading volume is shrinking, which requires caution.
· Need to confirm: Whether it can break through the key resistance level in the future.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance level: 4,752.56 (previous high pressure)
· Support level:
· Strong support 1: 4,359.07 (EMA5)
· Strong support 2: 4,296-4,305 (overlapping area of EMA10 and EMA30)
· Strong support 3: 3,888.44

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): oscillating upward test of previous highs

1. Reason: MACD golden cross + moving average bullish arrangement + trend is intact
2. Path: The price is oscillating and consolidating in the range of 4,480-4,752, digesting the previous trapped positions.
3. Breakthrough conditions: Requires trading volume to increase to the average level.
4. Target: After breaking 4,752, the next target is 5,206.46.

Possible scenario (30% probability): technical pullback

1. Trigger conditions: Continued insufficient volume + Effective resistance at previous highs
2. Callback Target:
· First target: 4,359 (EMA5)
· Second target: 4,296-4,305 (EMA10/30 overlapping area)
3. Nature Judgment: As long as it does not drop below 4,296, it is still a healthy pullback.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): direct volume breakthrough

1. Condition: Significant positive news or market sentiment drives
2. Feature: Trading volume surges sharply, directly breaking through the resistance of 4,752.
3. Objective: Quickly advance towards 5,206

Trading Recommendations

For holders of long positions:

· You can continue to hold, with a stop loss set below 4,350.
· Consider taking partial profits around 4,750.
· You can add positions when it breaks 4,752 and volumes increase.

For short sellers/watchers:

· Short selling is not recommended under the current technical conditions.
· Wait for callbacks to the 4,360-4,300 support zone to build positions in batches.
· Or wait for a breakout above 4,752 to chase long positions.

Key points of risk control:

· Key observation points:
· Can the trading volume return to the average level?
· Is the support at 4,359 effective?
· 4,752 resistance breakout situation
· Long Stop Loss: Below 4,350
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 4,800

Risk Warning

1. Price-volume divergence is the main risk currently and requires high attention.
2. There is psychological and technical dual pressure near the previous resistance at 4,752.
3. Although the MACD has a golden cross, it requires volume confirmation to be more reliable.
4. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; it is recommended to control positions and set strict stop-losses.

Summary: ETH is currently in a strong bullish trend, with the MACD golden cross providing technical support, but insufficient trading volume is a major concern. In the short term, it may fluctuate within the range of 4,480-4,752. It is recommended to buy on dips at the support level, and actively follow up after breaking the previous high. Pay close attention to changes in trading volume and the defense and attack situation at key price levels.