ETH Market Analysis on October 4

1. Trend Analysis

· The overall bullish pattern remains unchanged: the price is still above all EMAs, and the EMAs are in a bullish arrangement (EMA5 > EMA10 > EMA20 > EMA72 > EMA180)
· Short-term adjustment pressure: a pullback from the high of 4,740 to 4,499, a decline of about 5%, which is a normal technical correction.
· Moving Average Support System:
· Strong support 1: 4,412.67 (EMA5)
· Strong support 2: 4,338.22 (EMA10)
· Strong support 3: 4,319.61 (EMA20)

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Momentum is slowing but still biased to the upside: The MACD value of 39.7 is positive, indicating that buyer momentum still prevails.
· Potential top divergence risk: The price has pulled back from 4,740, but the specific structure of the MACD needs to be observed to see if a top divergence forms.
· Key Observation: The relationship between DIF and DEA needs to be confirmed, the current DIF is 32.72

3. Volume Analysis - Key Risk Signals

· Significant price-volume divergence: The current trading volume of 1.555 billion is far below the 5-day average of 19.965 billion and the 10-day average of 19.365 billion.
· Weak buying: The price increase lacks volume support, and the volume is also insufficient during pullbacks.
· Be cautious: If the volume continues to decrease, the depth of the pullback may increase.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Recent resistance: 4,591.20 (24-hour high)
· Key Resistance: 4,740.06 (previous high pressure)
· Strong resistance: 5,232.14 (historical high point)
· Support Levels:
· Immediate support: 4,448.40 (24-hour low)
· Strong support 1: 4,412.67 (EMA5)
· Strong support 2: 4,338-4,319 (EMA10/20 overlap zone)

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (55% probability): continue to pull back and test support.

1. Reason: Obvious divergence between volume and price + Insufficient pullback from the high point + Weakening MACD momentum
2. Callback target:
· First target: 4,412 (EMA5)
· Second target: 4,338 (EMA10)
3. Nature Judgment: As long as it stays above 4,319 (EMA20), it is still a healthy correction.

Possible scenario (35% probability): Range oscillation consolidation

1. Fluctuation range: 4,450-4,590 interval
2. Features: Volume reduction consolidation, digesting profit-taking positions, waiting for directional selection.
3. Duration: It may last 2-5 trading days.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Direct rebound to a new high

1. Condition: A breakout with a large bullish candlestick exceeding 4,591
2. Requirement: The trading volume must expand above the average volume.
3. Target: Test the resistance at 4,740 again

Trading Advice

For long holders:

· It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions in the 4,490-4,500 range.
· Set the stop loss below 4,410 (below EMA5)
· If it retraces to the support zone of 4,340-4,320, consider buying back.

For bears/wait-and-see investors:

· Short positions can be tried in the range of 4,550-4,580 with a light position, stop loss above 4,600.
· Mainly waiting for a pullback to the 4,340-4,320 support zone to position long orders.
· Stop-loss short position when breaking 4,591 with increased volume.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key Observations:
· Is the 4,412 support effective?
· Can the trading volume return to normal levels?
· 4,591 resistance breakthrough situation
· Long Stop Loss: Below 4,410
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 4,600

Risk Warning

1. The divergence between weight and price is the biggest risk currently and needs to be taken seriously.
2. The EMA5 support at 4,412 is key; losing it may trigger a deeper correction.
3. The overall trend remains bullish, but there is considerable short-term adjustment pressure.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss orders, and control risks.

Summary: ETH is in a technical correction phase within a long-term bullish trend, with volume-price divergence being the main concern. In the short term, it is leaning towards continuing the pullback to test the support area of 4,412-4,338. It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and consider going long only after the pullback reaches the support level. Pay close attention to changes in trading volume and the defense of key support levels.