Crypto Assets Market Outlook: Trend Analysis and Future Opportunities

The true market trends will only become clear after September. Considering macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity constraints, and quarterly position adjustments, the actual market dynamics will only manifest when participants return after the August holidays. Recently, the rise of most small coins is mainly due to short squeezes, with traders chasing momentum, but there is a lack of support from long-term holders. Many coins have experienced sharp increases followed by significant pullbacks.

Ethereum experienced an unexpected rebound, with sectors like artificial intelligence and meme coins, which had previously performed poorly, leading the rally. In contrast, tokens with actual utility, solid fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms showed stronger resilience, not only experiencing smaller declines but also recovering faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a meme coin, it has a completely different structure. From this, we can draw the following insights:

1. The demand for Bitcoin is real and lasting.

Traditional capital is gradually entering through regulated channels such as ETFs. The nature of the capital supporting BTC is completely different from the past, which makes large-scale BTC liquidation unlikely to occur unless influenced by macro events.

2. The differentiation of small coins is intensifying.

Funds will eventually flow to small coins, but will not cover everything. Only tokens with clear use cases and practical application scenarios are likely to attract funds. This is why Ethereum may outperform other public chains. Clear regulations, increased DeFi usage, deflationary structures, and staking demand have formed a strong positive cycle. Due to ETH's long-term performance falling short of expectations, there are still potential buyers waiting on the sidelines.

3. Tokens supported by venture capital carry structural risks.

Token unlocks will continue to put pressure on prices. When liquidity is insufficient, the ongoing sell-off by validators and early investors limits the upside potential. This makes the prospects of highly valued tokens listed on centralized exchanges bleak. Certain ecological tokens, in particular, face ongoing selling pressure due to their validator reward structures leading to this situation.

4. The advantages of Meme coins are fading.

Although meme coins have structural advantages, such as no venture capital unlocks and fair issuance, this phase seems to be coming to an end. Recent token generation events and the launch of popular meme coins may mark the peak of interest in meme coins. After that, interest in meme coins began to wane. Even in the April rebound, the performance of certain public chains was not as good as that of Ethereum.

Some meme coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity through influential figures on mainstream social media platforms. These could still bring considerable returns. However, the era of relying solely on the cute images of meme coins as investment targets is over. Only those coins with strong narratives and widespread market recognition have true speculative value.

5. Future Market Trends

As the popularity of meme coins cools down, the next opportunity may arise in the intersection of artificial intelligence and Crypto Assets.

• Similar to the DeFi summer, most early AI projects fail after the hype. However, truly practical projects are quietly building during the bear market. Some projects have already emerged on-chain.

• As the profits from meme coins dwindle, the market's focus will naturally shift to new narratives. AI, with its clear practicality, is likely to become the next focal point.

• Many AI x Crypto projects adopt a fair distribution model, echoing the narrative of some recent successful projects.

This is why I have been researching and positioning myself in this field recently. Although there is no need to rush to build a full position right now, I believe that if the market rises strongly again, this field will hold the greatest asymmetric opportunities.