BTC November 5 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· Strong bearish pattern: The price is below all EMAs, showing a perfect bearish alignment.
· Deep correction status: dropped from a high of 130,934.3 to the current 101,621.0, a decline of over 22%.
· Key support test: The price rebounded after finding support at 98,889.0 (24-hour low)
· Serious moving average suppression: All period EMAs are showing a downward trend, with multiple resistances.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Strong bearish momentum:
· The MACD value is -304.6, the DEA is -1467.6, both are deep negative values.
· The downward momentum remains strong, and a trend reversal has not yet arrived.
· This is a typical signal of an accelerating downtrend.

3. Volume Analysis

· Relative shrinkage: The current trading volume of 3.081 billion is lower than the 5-day average of 6.885 billion and the 10-day average of 8.170 billion.
· Market Meaning: During the decline, buying pressure is insufficient, but selling pressure is also relatively mild.
· Need to be vigilant: If a significant drop occurs, it may accelerate the downward trend.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong resistance 1: 104,869.4 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 2: 107,080.7 (EMA10)
· Strong Resistance 3: 109,099.9 (EMA180)
· Support Level:
· Key Support: 98,889.0 (24-hour low)
· Important support: 87,962.4 (previous low)

Trend prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): Continue to test the previous low support.

1. Reason: Strong MACD bearish signal + Bearish arrangement of moving averages + Price breaks below all key levels
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 98,889.0 (testing 24-hour low point)
· Second target: 87,962.4 (previous low key support)
3. Nature Judgment: If it falls below 87,962, it may trigger a deeper decline.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound

1. Condition: Obtain support near 98,889 for a sharp rebound.
2. Rebound target: 104,869-107,080 range (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Requirement: Need to increase trading volume.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Bottom formation

1. Condition: Consolidate and build a base in the range of 98,000-102,000.
2. Characteristics: Low volume sideways, digesting selling pressure
3. Duration: It may take a longer time.

Trading Suggestions

For long position holders:

· It is recommended to reduce positions during the rebound: consider reducing positions or exiting in the range of 103,000-104,000.
· Strict stop loss: set below 98,700
· If it falls below 98,889, you should exit all positions immediately.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position between 102,000 and 103,000, with a stop loss above 104,500.
· Target levels: 98,889, 90,000, 87,962
· Wait for a pullback to the 87,962 support area before considering a long position.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the support at 98,889 effective?
· Trading volume changes
· 104,869 resistance strength
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 105,000
· Long position entry point: around 87,962 (previous low support)

Risk Warning

1. The technical outlook has turned completely bearish, and strong performance is unlikely in the short term.
2. The previous low support at 87,962 is a key defense line; breaching it will open up greater downward space.
3. The overall market sentiment is extremely weak, affecting the independent movement of BTC.
4. It is recommended to operate with a very light position, strictly set stop-losses, and control risks.

Summary: BTC is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators sending strong bearish signals. There is a high probability of continuing to test support levels at 98,889 and 87,962 in the short term. The strategy should focus on shorting at highs, with strict risk control, and patiently waiting for the opportunity to enter long positions near the strong support at 87,962. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and blindly bottom-fishing is not advisable.