BTC August 18 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· Clear bearish alignment: Price is below all major EMAs, and the EMAs are in perfect bearish alignment.
· Key psychological barrier breached: the price has fallen below the important support level of 92,000
· The decline is widening: The drop from the previous high point has further increased, with enhanced bearish momentum.
· MACD confirms weakness: DEA's deep negative value indicates strong bearish momentum.

2. Price Position Analysis

· Testing key support: The price is testing the key support at 89,250.0 (24-hour low).
· Intensified oversold conditions: Technical indicators show severe overselling after consecutive declines.
· Downward channel intact: The price is moving along a clear downward channel, and no reversal signal has yet appeared.

3. Volume Analysis

· Trading volume is relatively active: Current trading volume of 4.838 billion is higher than the 5-day and 10-day average.
· Characteristics of increased volume during a decline: During the decline, the trading volume increases, indicating that selling pressure is still present.
· Significant capital outflow: The increase in volume and decline indicate that funds are continuously leaving the market.

4. Support and Resistance Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Recent resistance: 91,500-92,000 (psychological barrier)
· Strong Resistance 1: 94,378.9 (24-hour high)
· Strong Resistance 2: 96,399.6 (EMA5)
· Support Level:
· Key support: 89,250.0 (24-hour low)
· Next support: 87,000-88,000 range
· Strong support: 85,000.0

Market Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): Continue to probe for support.

1. Reason: Complete bearish arrangement + Deep negative MACD + Increased volume decline
2. Path:
· Brief rebound to the resistance zone of 91,500-92,000
· After being blocked, it tests the support of 89,250 again.
· If it breaks below, look towards the 87,000-88,000 range
3. Key Observation: 89,250 support effectiveness

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound correction

1. Trigger conditions: 89,250 support is valid + oversold technical correction
2. Rebound target: 92,000-93,500 range
3. Nature Judgment: A technical rebound occurring during a downtrend.

Low probability scenario (20% probability): Directly accelerate the decline

1. Condition: Volume breaks below the 89,250 support
2. Downward target: 85,000-86,000 range
3. Feature: Panic selling leads to accelerated decline

Trading advice

For those holding long positions:

· It is recommended to reduce positions on rebounds: firmly reduce positions in the 91,500-92,000 range.
· Strict Stop Loss: Set below 89,000
· If it falls below 89,250, you should exit immediately to avoid greater losses.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position at 91,200-91,800, with a stop loss above 92,500.
· If it breaks below 89,250, you can short it moderately, with a target of 87,500.
· Wait for a better rebound shorting opportunity

Risk Control Focus:

· Key Observations:
· Is the support at 89,250 effective?
· Resistance zone performance at 91,500-92,000
· Change in transaction volume
· Long stop loss: below 89,000
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 92,500

Risk Warning

1. The price has fallen below the key support, increasing the downside risk.
2. MACD deep negative values indicate strong bearish momentum
3. The trading volume has increased while the price has fallen, and selling pressure still exists.
4. It is recommended to strictly control the position and set stop-loss.

Summary

BTC is currently in a clear bearish trend, with technical indicators showing strong downward momentum. The key support level of 89,250 has become a dividing line for bulls and bears; if it breaks down, it may trigger a new wave of decline. It is recommended to primarily short on rallies, strictly control risks, and patiently wait for signs of market stabilization. It is not advisable to blindly catch the bottom at this time; wait for clearer reversal signals to appear.