Ethereum and the price window: when global liquidity will trigger a breakthrough again

Ethereum is currently at a critical crossroads where price windows are determined less by current news and more by global liquidity. Amid ETH trading around $2.12K, analysts point out that the current macroeconomic configuration surprisingly echoes the conditions that preceded a 226% surge in 2021. This confluence of factors—from on-chain data to the behavior of American small-cap stocks—repeats the same scenario that previously ignited a massive Ethereum rally.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation Price as a Support Level

CryptoQuant data reveal a story that remains unnoticed on superficial technical charts. Ethereum accumulation addresses—wallets that consistently buy without distributing—continue to increase their realized price. This metric has historically served as a strong structural support, and in previous cycles, Ethereum rarely dipped below this level.

Against this backdrop, the current ETH price near $2.12K forms price windows for potential moves. If this zone holds, analysts believe that further declines could be limited to about 7%, placing a local bottom within the structural support. The range of these levels also overlaps with key liquidity clusters, increasing the likelihood of a technical reaction during a retest.

Global Liquidity as a Driver: Russell 2000 and Ethereum

The most intriguing observation is at the macro level. Crypto analyst Sykodelic highlighted a recurring three-stage macro pattern that historically preceded significant Ethereum rallies:

The first stage begins with a breakout in global liquidity. This is followed by a move in the Russell 2000 index, which covers American small-cap stocks. Only then, with a delay of several weeks, does the main expansion phase for Ethereum commence.

This sequence unfolded before the massive bull cycle of 2021. Global liquidity had already broken upward, and the Russell 2000 confirmed its own breakout shortly thereafter. According to Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, the US small-cap index has historically acted as a leading indicator for ETH price movements. The index recently hit a new all-time high, a development that previously preceded periods of aggressive ETH growth.

Historical Prototype: 119 Days of Waiting Before a Jump

In the 2021 cycle, Ethereum began its rally approximately 119 days after the Russell 2000 breakout, ultimately rising more than 226% between March and November of that year. If the same synchronization persists, analysts suggest that the price windows for a significant ETH breakout could open around early spring 2026.

The current monthly structure of the Russell 2000 also closely resembles that of 2021—a signal that broader risk appetite may be returning beneath the surface of markets. This parallel allows analysts to speculate that the strength of small-cap stocks could once again act as a favorable factor for Ethereum in the coming weeks.

Liquidity at the Center of the Scenario: Why Short-Term Focus Takes a Backseat

While crypto markets continue to fluctuate on inertia, deep logic suggests that Ethereum’s trajectory is increasingly linked to global liquidity conditions rather than other news or isolated technical indicators. The strongest ETH rallies in previous cycles began only after a significant expansion of liquidity and a quiet return of risk appetite—often before the overall sentiment shift became visible to the masses.

If the current macroeconomic alignment continues, the price windows forming now could serve as a springboard for a long-lasting but powerful Ethereum breakout. This won’t be the first time that global liquidity triggers an asset movement—and if history is any guide, paying attention to on-chain signals and macro indicators can help identify the next major cycle earlier than others notice.