#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Will the market continue to decline? (Current Evidence)

Short-term price behavior shows bearish pressure:
Bitcoin recently dropped below key levels around $63,000–$67,000, marking the lowest range in over a year and signaling continued selling pressure. This happened as BTC lost half its value from its October 2025 peak, and leveraged positions were liquidated extensively, eroding confidence and buyer activity.

Broader sell-off dynamics indicate risk of further downside:
Trading volume remains elevated on declines, which often suggests real selling pressure rather than shallow corrections.

Analysts point out that major support zones were breached, increasing the probability of further retracements toward lower anchors like $70,000, $65,000 or even lower if panic persists.

Some models and strategic forecasts even project deeper potential downside in extreme scenarios BTC could revisit lower zones like $50,000–$40,000 if macro stress continues.
This doesn’t guarantee a crash, but current trend and on-chain signals still favor bearish continuation until buyers step in decisively.

When is the best time to bottom-fish? (Signal Framework)
Bottom-fishing isn’t about picking the lowest tick it’s about identifying high-probability reversal zones where selling pressure exhausts. Key signals to watch before initiating bigger bottom entries:

Capitulation & Panic Exhaustion
A classic bottom signal comes when fear peaks and most short-term traders capitulate (i.e., give up and exit). Real panic shows up as:
Massive sell volume concentrated on key supports
Price staying below support for several days but failing to gain lower traction
Strong long lower wicks (rejection of lower prices)
When these happen together, it often hints that selling pressure is running out and big buyers (long-term holders/whales) start absorbing. Historical bear cycle bottoms frequently look like this.

Macro & Liquidity Reprieve
Market bottoms often coincide with relief in the macro environment, such as:
USD stabilization or cooling off
Central bank signals easing tightening
Risk assets finding intra-market correlation support against broader sell pressure
Until liquidity improves, risk assets — including BTC — tend to struggle.

Technical Oversold Indicators + Support Holds
Technical conditions that often align with bottoms include:
Weekly RSI in deep oversold territory (near historic low bands) indicating seller exhaustion from a momentum standpoint.

Price holding around historical cycle low confluence zones often previous long-term supports or structural trend lines.
Sustained break and recovery back above these support zones after tests.
When the market tests and holds a key support especially with volume absorbed rather than sold through that’s often where serious accumulation begins.

Shift in Derivative & Funding Markets
Derivatives markets can flash potential reversal signals:
Funding rates switch from strongly negative to neutral
Put/call skew reduces, suggesting less demand for protective downside bets
Exchange net flows begin decreasing heavy outflows may reduce selling pressure in spot markets
These shifts often precede larger trend changes in crypto.

Combining Macro + Price Action
A smart bottom-fishing strategy blends:
Macro indicators (liquidity, sentiment)
On-chain and technical signals (support testing, volume structure)
Derivative market cues (funding, options skew)
If all three begin showing seller exhaustion and buyer interest at key levels, that’s when bottom-fishing becomes statistically more favorable.

Summary So What’s the Bottom-Fishing Signal Now?
Current state:
Market trend still shows downside continuation risk due to volume-driven selling and support breaks.
Bears retain control until technical buyers step in.
Some longer cycle oversold conditions may be forming on weekly charts.
Best bottom-fishing strategy now:
➡ Wait for confirmation signals first not just a price low, but indicators of exhaustion + macro stabilization + support hold.
➡ Enter in phases (e.g., partial buys at strong supports, larger buys after confirmed reversal patterns).
➡ Use risk management (stop-loss, scaling, defined zones) to protect capital if price continues lower.