Bitcoin may fall below $60,000: the breakeven cycle could extend to 2027, with whale selling pressure increasing downside risk

Golden Finance reports that on March 28, according to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below $60,000, the market’s return to historical highs may be postponed until 2027. Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025, and historically, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period averages about 80 days.
Currently, if $60,000 is the phase bottom, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to dive into the $40,000–$45,000 range, the overall retracement will expand to over 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027. On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has yet to be confirmed. The Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12–0.15), indicating that there is still room for further downward movement. In terms of capital flows, whale selling continues to increase pressure.
Data shows that the selling intensity of large holders has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets has weakened simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including maintaining high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further delay the recovery pace of the crypto market.