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Details: ht
Trump's encryption reserve plan, can it really ignite the Bull Market?
First of all, let's talk about the conclusion: In the context of tightening liquidity, can Trump's statement really bring about a long-term bullish run in the cryptocurrency circle? Or is smart money once again playing out the strategy of 'buy the rumor, sell the fact'?
📌 Let's first look at a few key events:
1️⃣ Trump announced plans to include encryption currencies in the national reserves, mentioning assets such as BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA.
2️⃣ On March 7th, the White House cryptocurrency conference may bring more policy information to the market.
3️⃣ The most anticipated liquidity signal in the encryption market may be revealed at the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18th.
The market surged in response, with the market value of the currency circle soaring by hundreds of billions in just a few hours. But when things calm down, we need to think about three questions:
❓ Question 1: Where does Trump's 'national reserve' funding come from?
Trump is a businessman. It is his style to use other people's money to do his own things. Will the national reserve really use fiscal funds to purchase encryption currency? Or is it some kind of disguised interest transfer? Currently, he has not clarified the source of funds. Is it directly using the national treasury or guiding private capital to enter? If it's just about setting the tone, how will the market follow up?
❓ Question 2: Can Bitcoin really become a national strategic reserve?
🔹 National reserves need to meet: physical stability, wartime controllability, and supply sustainability.
🔹 Bitcoin vs. traditional reserve assets (gold, oil), one is decentralized, the other is completely controlled by the government, can the US government accept reserve assets that they cannot control?
🔹 Volatility issue: Bitcoin's 30-day annualized volatility exceeds 60%, far higher than gold (15%) and the US dollar. What strategic reserves need is stability, not an asset that could experience dramatic volatility at any time.
Conclusion: The value of Bitcoin in the financial system is unquestionable, but whether it can become a national reserve, at least in the short term, is still a question mark.
❓ Question 3: Real obstacles to legal compliance?
The US law does not give encryption currencies the legal status of "national strategic reserve" assets.
⚖️ The National Defense Production Act does not authorize the inclusion of digital assets in strategic reserves. If it is to be implemented, it requires congressional legislation to promote it, which could take as little as half a year or as long as several years.
🚀 Conclusion: Sugar water or milk nurse?
The current positives are more like a 'sugar water,' enough to boost the market in the short term, but in the long run, the real determining factor is still the Fed's liquidity policy. Without additional funds, the bull run is difficult to sustain.
So, the White House meeting on March 7th & the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18th are the more important key points to pay attention to!
#BTC# ETH #SOL# XRP #ADA# Inclusion in strategic reserves