A expectativa de redução de juros pelo Federal Reserve muda, a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio do iene pode enfrentar intervenção política

【区块律动】Market analyst Jeremy Boulton recently pointed out that the upcoming US inflation data could be a key turning point. If this data pushes the dollar higher, Japanese authorities are likely to be forced to intervene, especially since they are already uncomfortable with the yen’s decline.

Since the release of the US employment report last week, market expectations for further Fed rate cuts have significantly cooled. The current consensus is that the Fed will only cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in this easing cycle, with the terminal policy rate raised from 3.0% to 3.25%.

The December inflation data will be crucial. Economists generally forecast a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with estimates ranging from 2.5% to 2.9%. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce market expectations of a “hawkish” stance from the Fed.

Interestingly, speculative positions in the market are actually quite thin—yen net positions are only about 2 billion USD, and the volatility of exchange rates over the past year has already decreased significantly. Theoretically, intervention by Japan at this point could actually exacerbate rather than smooth out volatility. However, considering that the Bank of Japan has previously undertaken large-scale interventions in similar situations, any data that further pushes the dollar higher could become a trigger for a new round of intervention.