1. Current Market Status: Panic-Driven Selloff Dominated by Geopolitical Risks
On April 13, the cryptocurrency market fell broadly again. Affected by news of the U.S. military blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $70,500 during the day, and as of the time of writing, it was about $70,600. Major cryptocurrencies were under collective pressure, with ETH and SOL both falling more than 4% within 24 hours, and DOGE, XRP, and others all declining.
In the past 24 hours, more than 146,000 traders were liquidated globally, with the total liquidation amount reaching $281 million, of which long positions accounted for $202 million. The Fear and Greed Index has continued to stay in the “Extreme Fear” range, and retail sentiment has fallen to a historic low.
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2. Core Divergence: Market Panic vs. Ecosystem Development
The most notable phenomenon in the current market is the widening split between sentiment in the secondary market and ecosystem development of projects. Many analysts point out that although prices have continued to face pressure, the fundamentals of core projects have not worsened—in fact, they are steadily progressing. This divergence may be exactly the accumulation window for the biggest disagreements.
Over the past year, Morpho borrowers have paid approximately $170 million in interest in total. DAO’s annual revenue is about $17 million, corresponding to a valuation of $1.7 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of about 100:1. By comparison, Aave’s annual revenue is about $140 million, its valuation is $1.5 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio is only about 11:1. This suggests that Morpho’s pricing includes strong growth expectations, but it also implies that digesting its revenue multiple will take longer.
On the Aave side, VC selling (Blockchain Capital, ParaFi, etc.) combined with the bear market environment has led to a relatively large recent drop in AAVE. However, on the fundamentals level, the DAO has just passed the “Aave Will Win” proposal, allocating $25 million to Aave Labs. Founder Stani called it “the most important proposal in Aave’s history,” marking the end of an era in which governance was paid for. Aave V4 deposits have exceeded $10 million, and total value locked (TVL) has been maintained at about $25.3 billion.
Pendle is currently trading at about $1.07. Compared with its April 2024 peak, it is down about 86%. TVL has fallen from a peak of $13.4 billion to around $1.96 billion. But the team has rolled out tokenomics reforms for the sPENDLE token economy, with up to 80% of protocol revenue used for buyback token allocation to stakers, while also reducing emissions by 20%-30%. Given its dominant position in the sector (market share over 95%), if the interest-rate market becomes active again, the current risk-reward ratio of 1:4 has some appeal.
SUSHI is trading at about $0.20, which is 99% below its historical high. TVL has fallen to about $38–$48 million. But the new team has taken control of the protocol; the product suite includes cross-chain swaps, concentrated liquidity, limit orders, and new modules such as Wara and Susa—though the question is whether execution can live up to expectations.
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3. Macro Catalysts: Two Key Variables
Geopolitics is the biggest variable right now. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil transportation; if a blockade is carried out, risk assets will generally face pressure. However, some research indicates that within 60 days after major global shocks, Bitcoin’s performance has consistently outperformed gold and the S&P 500. If there are signs of easing in peace negotiations, the crypto market could rebound first.
The CLARITY Act officially enters a critical legislative window today. If the bill passes, 16 mainstream assets including BTC and ETH will be explicitly classified as “commodities” under CFTC regulation, fully removing SEC jurisdiction. This could be the most important watershed in U.S. crypto regulatory history.
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4. Overall Assessment
The market is currently in a window where geopolitical risk pricing and expectations of regulatory tailwinds are pulling in opposite directions. In the short term, sentiment is dominated by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, BTC needs to hold the $70,000–$70,500 support zone; otherwise, it could test lower levels further to $66,000–$68,000. ETH is also facing a test at the key support level of $2,138.
But it’s worth noting that institutional behavior is completely opposite to retail. In Q1 2026, institutions net accumulated 69,000 BTC, while retail net sold 62,000 BTC. Institutions have been continuously accumulating chips in the extreme fear zone, while retail investors are exiting in panic. The divergence between market structure and ecosystem development may be building momentum for the next phase of a rebound.
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