The recent market trend has become a bit strange: it shouldn't be falling, but instead, it hints at a potential turning point.
Normally, in such an external environment, the crypto market should be declining steadily:
Middle East conflicts escalate, oil and gold prices surge, Korean stocks plunge, and interest rate cut expectations continue to be delayed...
Almost all negative news is a chain of setbacks.
But what’s the result?
BTC surprisingly stopped falling.
It hasn't broken through 60,000; Bitcoin was repeatedly tested at 63,000 three times,
but not only did it not collapse, it gradually rebounded.
A classic signal in the crypto world: if it shouldn’t fall but does, it’s likely to rise.
Many turning points actually occur this way.
Technical indicators have already started to change.
From a structural perspective, BTC shows two obvious changes:
1. Volume breakout of the short-term downtrend channel
2. Reclaiming the upper boundary of the 72,000 range
In other words: the previous downtrend line has been broken.
Now, the market looks more like — a phase of retesting after a breakout.
Key detail: the retracement volume is relatively small
This indicates:
Although the market is oscillating, selling pressure isn’t strong.
As long as there’s no high-volume dump,
there’s still room for the price to push higher.
Short-term key level: 74,500
Being conservative, it can still be treated as a sideways market for now.
The critical resistance in the short term is at 74,500.
For those with larger positions:
It’s reasonable to trim some spot holdings at this level on rallies.
An often overlooked piece of advice:
Resistance levels are rarely broken in one go; they are “grinded out.”
As long as there’s no high-volume decline,
a few more attempts can increase the probability of a breakout.
Weekly chart shows 6 consecutive declines, oversold clearly
Extending the timeframe makes it even clearer:
BTC has had 6 consecutive weekly red candles,
and technical indicators are in the oversold zone.
This structure usually means:
A weekly rebound is very likely not over yet.
It’s even possible that this wave could lead to a 1-2 month sideways upward cycle.
Market liquidity is quietly improving
Recent changes in liquidity include:
• Continuous net inflows into US stock BTC ETFs
• Rebound of related institutional assets: MicroStrategy, Circle Internet Group
• OKB, a positive catalyst, surged by 50%
All these indicate:
Market sentiment is warming up, and liquidity is recovering.
Mid-term rebound target zones
If the rally continues,
I personally focus on two areas:
1. Near 83,000 (head and shoulders neckline)
2. Around 85,000 (middle Bollinger band on weekly chart)
Interestingly—
These levels seem more like zones to set up long-term short positions.
Next strategy: one sentence summary
Bullish on BTC rebound, but short altcoins on rallies.
In a bear market, altcoins usually have only two roles:
• Either to pump and give you hope
• Or to rebound and help you get out of trouble
For example, Solana, I’ve already placed a low-leverage short around 120, patiently waiting for an opportunity.
A final phrase that all veteran traders agree on:
The most profitable people in a bear market are often not the smartest.
It’s those who—don’t rush, take slow entries, and can endure loneliness.
In the crypto world:
Being a little slower actually helps you survive longer.
