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BTC_POWER_LA
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BTC_POWER_LA
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Is the power law useful?
You can use it with a simple strategy using spot and perps with 1.5x leverage (and never been liquidated) to get you 800 BTC from 1 BTC over the history of Bitcoin.
We didn't have perps early on but it shows what can be done.
You can use it with a simple strategy using spot and perps with 1.5x leverage (and never been liquidated) to get you 800 BTC from 1 BTC over the history of Bitcoin.
We didn't have perps early on but it shows what can be done.
BTC-6.66%
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CryptosTalker
:
LFG 🔥:This is interesting. If you DCA at regular interval you still get a power law growth for your investment but it is at much lower slope. Using the power law as a signal allows you to increase this slope instead.
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You can use the power law also to DCA intelligently and reduce drawdown and improve over all performance. Almost a factor of 10 for this power law active DCA.
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A haunting murder mystery.
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Advanced option strat (mostly cover calls) using the power law information.
Who said the power law cannot be used to trade?
This is based on real option chain info.
You start with 1 BTC and end with more than 9 in 8 years.
Who said the power law cannot be used to trade?
This is based on real option chain info.
You start with 1 BTC and end with more than 9 in 8 years.
BTC-6.66%
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At a conference in my role of advisor for Blockstream Capital Partners.
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Listening to a presentation by Zipline a drone delivery company that is already operating in the US. Just incredible. Effective, cheap, the future.
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Current conference.
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We live in the best of times. Why people are scared of everything?
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Cover calls work really well during bear markets.
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The Monte Carlo simulation based on the power law slopes is more conservative than traditional Black-Scholes (the trillion dollar equation).
This is because we consider properly the large tails of the distribution of possible Bitcoin returns.
This is a full backtest on the history of Bitcoin.
Cover calls using this method can give very safe 1% premium a month and 2 % with just a bit more risk.
This is while being fully exposed to long term Bitcoin growth.
This is because we consider properly the large tails of the distribution of possible Bitcoin returns.
This is a full backtest on the history of Bitcoin.
Cover calls using this method can give very safe 1% premium a month and 2 % with just a bit more risk.
This is while being fully exposed to long term Bitcoin growth.
BTC-6.66%
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Notice how the price wants to move along the power law even after a correction. Corrections are almost vertical and then price moves along a path parallel to the power law.
Bitcoin does mostly power law things.
Bitcoin does mostly power law things.
BTC-6.66%
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Price projection for the next 14 days. Yellow curve is the median of all paths == power law.
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1. The long-run convergence — the gold dashed power law prediction and the teal 4-year median have been converging steadily since 2013 and are now essentially on top of each other at ~38–42%. This is arguably the single most compelling empirical confirmation in the book: the 4-year smoothed return is tracking the theoretical prediction from a mathematical model fitted years earlier.
2. Cycle amplitude decay in CAGR terms — peak 1-year CAGRs fell from 27,628% (2011) → 9,900% (2013) → 1,641% (2017) → 1,002% (2021) → 135% (2025). The oscillations are dampening toward the power law baseline, exact
2. Cycle amplitude decay in CAGR terms — peak 1-year CAGRs fell from 27,628% (2011) → 9,900% (2013) → 1,641% (2017) → 1,002% (2021) → 135% (2025). The oscillations are dampening toward the power law baseline, exact
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When you take a long trend look at Bitcoin nothing has changed. Even without a run away top we are averaging returns that are exactly what predicted by the power law. Right now these averaged CAGR is around 40 %. Again do not look at a particular year but averages over an horizon of at least 4 years.
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No. If we follow the power law the CAGR will be 10 % in 61 years. By then we will have probably hyperbitcoinization.
It goes like that:
the formula is CAGR=( (year+1)/year)^5.9 where year is the year from the Genesis Block. To find when we will reach 10 % then we do: 1.1=( (year+1)/year)^5.9, 1.1^(1/5.9)= year+1/year, year= 1/(1.1^(1/5.9)-1)=61.4, 2070.
The CARG right now is in average 40 % instead.
It goes like that:
the formula is CAGR=( (year+1)/year)^5.9 where year is the year from the Genesis Block. To find when we will reach 10 % then we do: 1.1=( (year+1)/year)^5.9, 1.1^(1/5.9)= year+1/year, year= 1/(1.1^(1/5.9)-1)=61.4, 2070.
The CARG right now is in average 40 % instead.
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