On October 24th, according to Polymarket, an encryption prediction market platform, a trader who bet over $45 million on Trump winning the election has been confirmed to be a user from France. Polymarket does not allow the use of American users. A company spokesperson said in a statement on Thursday that the four other major accounts also have rich trading experience and financial service background, and they spent millions of dollars in total to support the Republican’s victory on November 5th. Online surveyors previously expressed concern that these accounts were operated by one person for the purpose of distorting Trump’s odds. The spokesperson said: ‘According to the investigation, we learned that this person took a directional position based on personal views of the election. In addition, no information has been found so far to indicate that the user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market.’ So far, the volume of this year’s election on Polymarket’s main market is close to $2.4 billion. As of Thursday, the implied probability of Trump’s victory on this platform was 61.6%, 59% on the competitor platform Kalshi, and 57% on the PredictIt platform.
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