#我的周末交易计划 Bitcoin Market Outlook for the Weekend: Don't Be Overly Optimistic, Be Prepared!
**Crypto Market Updates:**
1. According to monitoring data, Grayscale transferred a total of 3979 ETH to a CB Prime address through its Ethereum Mini Trust fund, valued at approximately $852 million at an average price of $2141.
2. According to monitoring data, a mysterious whale purchased 3618 ETH at an average price of $2128 using 7.7 million USDT.
3. Early Bitcoin supporter Erik Voorhees' associated address increased holdings by over 5800 ETH at an average price of $2126.
**Market Developments:**
1. On March 21st, according to CBS News, multiple sources who received relevant briefings revealed that U.S. Department of Defense officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground troops to Iran.
2. U.S. President Trump: (Regarding Iran) I don't want a ceasefire right now. We can talk with Iran, but I don't want a ceasefire.
3. On March 21st, local time evening of March 20th, Iran released a statement stating it has launched the 69th wave of "True Promise-4" operation that evening. This operation targeted Israel's core areas, including objectives in Tel Aviv, Acre, and Haifa regions, striking Israeli combat support enterprises, military-industrial facilities, and communication and radar-related infrastructure!
4. On March 21st, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Dow down 0.97%, Nasdaq down 2.01%, and S&P 500 down 1.51%.
**Overall Analysis:**
The possibility of rate hikes by the European Central Bank and Bank of England is increasing, potentially as early as April. The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday and forecasts inflation will rise higher, while Chairman Powell stated that due to the impact of war, future policy paths face exceptionally high uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin operations should predominantly focus on shorting, and buying activity should be reduced and cautious!
**Daily Chart Analysis:**
The coin price has tested the 30-day moving average support near 69000 multiple times, and although it currently hovers around the 70000 round number level, the rebound is weak. Additionally, from a time perspective, the coin price's consolidation cycle has approached 1.5 months, meeting conditions for potential one-sided downside movement. Furthermore, due to relatively mild weekend trading conditions, continued sideways consolidation of the coin price carries a high probability!
Overall, buying action requires caution with minimal entries. Shorting near resistance levels may be more attractive!
**Upside Resistance Levels:**
- Initial resistance: around the 5-day MA near $70997
- Further resistance: around the $74000 round number level!
**Downside Support Levels:**
- Initial support: around the 30-day MA near $69121
- Further support: around the Bollinger Band lower band near $66214! (If bears unexpectedly see significant volume, $62400 also needs consideration)
