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The topic of “ダウ転換” has been making the rounds among traders again recently. It’s a theory that Charles H. Dow established over 100 years ago, but even today it remains a basic principle you can’t ignore when reading the market. In simple terms, Dow Theory is the idea of judging the market’s overall trend using two main indices. If both the Industrial Average and the Transportation Average are rising, that’s an uptrend—something like that. Back then, railroads and manufacturing were closely connected, so this correlation made sense, but with digitalization today, the situation has changed. However, what matters most is the essential concept of trend. There are three levels in the market: the primary trend that lasts from several months to several years, the secondary trend that spans from a few weeks to a few months, and short-term fluctuations within days. Many traders get misled by short-term moves and end up missing the real “ダウ転換.” This really comes into play in the cryptocurrency market. If BTC is in a long-term uptrend but enters a short-term adjustment phase, that could be a buying opportunity. By comparing the movements of the total market capitalization and individual assets, you can tell whether it’s a genuine “ダウ転換” or just a temporary wobble. There are three steps in a bull market. First comes the accumulation phase—when the bear market ends and the whole market is in a pessimistic period. Next is the public participation phase, from which a full-scale uptrend begins. The last is the excess/distribution phase, when smart money starts to leave. Bear markets proceed in the reverse order. Another important principle Dow emphasized is trading volume. Weak trends often come with light volume. Conversely, a true “ダウ転換” is always accompanied by a large amount of trading volume. If you miss this, you can get caught in false breakouts. Because the crypto market runs 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, sentiment also has a big impact. That’s exactly why the Dow Theory focus on psychology and the principle of trend continuity are useful. Once a trend is established, it’s likely to continue until a clear “ダウ転換” signal appears. Many traders mistake secondary-trend adjustments for reversals and make hasty decisions. In the end, a theory from 100 years ago hasn’t changed even now. Market psychology, confirmation signals, and trend continuity—these remain the basics of technical analysis. Whether you can correctly recognize “ダウ転換” can make a major difference in the accuracy of your trades.

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