October 3, 2025
The market has surged again in the past two days, with Bitcoin reaching a maximum of 120,000 USD. The reason for this is mainly macroeconomic; the U.S. government has suddenly revealed a risk of a shutdown, and the enormous debt pressure makes the upcoming interest rate cuts feel somewhat urgent. The current financial system can only keep expanding the debt ceiling and increasing inflation, causing the value of fiat currency to continuously depreciate, while the corresponding anti-inflation asset, Bitcoin, will see its price rise in the long term.
The four-year cycle in the cry

Ran outside today, taking a day off.

October 1, 2020
Let's talk about the market. The price of Bitcoin seems to have stabilized, which is an important signal for the market. As for Ethereum, I personally have confidence that it will break through 5000 points soon, as it's only about 20 points away. A wave of major upward momentum will solve it. Of course, due to the bullish sentiment.

Market Analysis on September 30, 2025
Anyway, I think this market is acceptable, whether it’s the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or BNB and SOL, all of which have risen significantly in this bull market. In fact, despite all the new listings, there aren’t many that can accommodate large positions. The returns are certainly high and worth playing, but it requires significant capital and the right timing to buy mainstream assets at the bottom. Perhaps discussing this "timing" is still premature, but I want to say that one should prepare in advance for a bull market. What should we prepare? I have m

Market Analysis on September 29, 2025
The market continues to rebound slightly. Being able to pull back before the holiday is a very good signal for the market after the National Day holiday. Generally speaking, there is a need to reduce positions before a long holiday, mainly for some funds and professional traders, who will lower their positions to avoid unexpected situations. After all, it is impossible for everyone to work overtime, and responding to extreme situations and coordinating them can be quite troublesome. Reducing positions is the best choice. According to this logic, the declin

Today on the road, taking a day off~

Market Analysis on September 27, 2025
Today the market has rebounded somewhat, but overall it has not escaped the weak trend, considered as a small-scale oversold situation. Based on this market condition, it is expected that a period of low volatility and consolidation will begin, and there is a risk of further declines during the consolidation period, which we need to be psychologically prepared for. The recent market has not been favorable; apart from the lack of buying pressure, there hasn't been much new selling. From my perspective, the selling pressure from the whales has always bee

September 26, 2025 Market Analysis
Looking at the overall market, it's been a bit grim these past couple of days. I didn't expect Ethereum, which was previously the strongest, to perform so poorly. It actually dropped below $4000. It's worth noting that not only are there no US companies coming in to buy, but many are queuing up to exit. To be honest, as a long-term holder of spot assets, I'm a bit worried. However, the good news is that Bitcoin's price hasn't broken down yet. The entire market seems to be a bit dangerous, but maybe this is also what the market wants us

Market Analysis on September 25, 2025
The market has fallen again, which seems to confirm my worries from a few days ago. The market is in a relatively FOMO stage, and with the risk signal of over 10 billion RMB in liquidations in a single day appearing, the probability of further decline has increased. Although I personally did not reduce my positions, I just restrained myself from increasing my positions or buying new coins. This drop, although within expectations, is still a bit concerning, mainly because the price of Ethereum has directly hit 4000 USD, when the previous support was at 4200

September 24, 2025
As for why Ethereum's recent performance has been so poor, the core issue is the lack of capital attention. Previously, it was the purchase by MicroStrategy, a company in the U.S. stock market, that led to the price skyrocketing. After losing this core buyer, the buying power in the cryptocurrency market appears weak. In this situation,

September 23, 2025
It has been noted that in this wave of decline, the liquidation amount of contracts exceeded 1.7 billion USD, of which 1.62 billion were long positions. This not only indicates that long positions dominate the majority, reflecting the current market's FOMO sentiment, but there is also another point worth noting, which is the threshold of 10 billion RMB that I mentioned before. This is a rough value summarized from the liquidation amounts in previous bull markets. Although there is no rigorous data reference, exceeding this value is one of the risk signals of a bull marke

September 22, 2025
Today, let's mainly talk about Aster. Aster has made a lot of people wealthy, as the FDV peaked at over 15 billion, and even with a few points of airdrop calculation, it directly injected several hundred million dollars worth of chips into the market. Of course, many people sold at its peak, with the price soaring close to 20 times from the opening, greatly exceeding market expectations. As for why many people sold, those who have used Aster's products know: it's not worth that price. But the market's valuation system has been reshaped, and the price has soar

In a big dump market, what is key to look at? If you want to know the direction of the market, you should still monitor whether BTC breaks key levels. As for Ethereum, the recent pump has been relatively weak, and a pullback is naturally unavoidable. Currently, neither BTC nor Ether has broken key levels; in my opinion, this still belongs to a killing of longs in an overheated market. The systemic risk is not large, but don't rush to buy in the short-term to prevent a second drop. Continue holding Spot, and those who have reduced positions at high levels may consider swing trading. Do not

On September 21, I am looking at the Perp track today, and managing the Arbitrage Position takes a lot of time, so I'm taking a day off. If you have any questions about Perp, feel free to leave a message, and I'll reply to everyone later.

September 20, 2025
The market has pulled back again, and it's unclear how long the volatile market will last, especially for Ethereum. Recently, the number of participants queuing to stake has not seen a significant increase; instead, the number of those queuing to exit remains high. Although not all of this exit queue represents selling pressure, a large portion should be staking service providers changing wallets. However, I believe that a substantial rally from the main players is likely to wait until this data is digested or close to being digested.
In terms of timing, the pump next mo

Market Analysis September 19, 2025
After a 25 basis point rate cut, the market did not experience any unexpected movements. The U.S. stock market is continuing to reach all-time highs, and gold prices are also hitting new highs. All risk assets around the world are steadily rising during the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Although we know that no asset can rise indefinitely in one direction, due to the inherent rules of the monetary system, the prices of valuable assets tend to rise steadily with some fluctuations over the long term. In any case, we are currently in an upward cycle of a

Market Analysis on September 18, 2025
During the last bear market, I also held a few thousand BNB, but I gradually sold them all off, essentially selling at a loss. Therefore, I reallocated some assets during the last bear market, and currently, the returns are quite good. The crypto space is a place full of dreams, which is the reason many people keep coming back. Eight years ago, many people were just inexperienced young individuals or unnoticed cogs in the machine. However, if you invested in BNB, even just spending 1000, it could have turned into 10 million by now, instantly achieving a le

Market Analysis on September 17, 2025
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin has shown a slight short-term increase, and it is worth mentioning that BNB suddenly surged in the early morning.

September 16, 2025
Tonight, interest rate cut data will be released. Currently, it seems that the market has already hedged against potential fluctuations to prevent any sudden situations, and in fact, the probability of abnormal data is relatively low. The U.S. stock market continues to perform steadily, constantly refreshing its historical highs, which is quite consistent with the pace of interest rate cuts. With this premise, the external risks in the cryptocurrency space are not significant.
Recently, I watched the movie "Catching the Wind" again, which centers around a bank heist involvin