Q4 2025 Bitcoin valuation raised to $200,000

Author: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon, Jay Jo

Source: Tiger Research

This report is authored by Tiger Research. Based on factors such as institutional continuous buying amid volatility, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the October crash confirming an institutional-led market pattern, a Bitcoin target price of $200,000 is projected for Q4 2025.

Key Highlights

• Institutional investors continue to rise in holdings amid volatility — Q3 ETF net inflows remained stable, with MicroStrategy adding 388 Bitcoins in a single month, demonstrating strong long-term investment conviction;
• Overheated but not yet extreme — The MVRV-Z index stands at 2.31, indicating elevated valuation but not at extreme levels. Deleveraging by leverage funds has cleared short-term traders, creating room for the next rise;
• Global liquidity environment remains favorable — Broad money supply (M2) surpasses $96 trillion, hitting a record high. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are heating up, with 1-2 more cuts anticipated within the year.

Institutional Buying Amid US-China Trade Uncertainty

In Q3 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed from the strong rally in Q2 (28% quarter-over-quarter growth), entering a sideways phase with only 1% growth quarter-over-quarter.

On October 6, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,210, but the Trump administration again applied trade pressure on China, causing Bitcoin’s price to retrace 18% to $104,000, with volatility significantly increasing. According to Volmex Finance’s Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), as institutional investors steadily increased holdings, Bitcoin volatility narrowed from March to September but surged 41% after September, intensifying market uncertainty (Chart 1).

Driven by renewed US-China trade friction and aggressive rhetoric from Trump, this pullback appears temporary. Institutional strategic accumulation, led by Strategy Inc. (MSTR), is actually accelerating. The macro environment also played a supporting role. Global broad money supply (M2) exceeded $96 trillion, reaching a record high, while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17. The Fed hinted at 1-2 more rate cuts this year, with a stable labor market and economic recovery creating favorable conditions for risk assets.

Institutional capital inflows remain strong. In Q3, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $7.8 billion. Although lower than Q2’s $12.4 billion, the consistent net inflow throughout Q3 confirms steady institutional buying. This momentum continued into Q4 — just in the first week of October, inflows hit $3.2 billion, setting a new weekly record for 2025. This indicates that institutional investors view price retracements as strategic entry points. Strategy Inc. continued buying during the market correction, acquiring 220 Bitcoins on October 13 and 168 on October 20, totaling 388 Bitcoins in one week. This demonstrates that regardless of short-term fluctuations, institutional investors remain firmly committed to Bitcoin’s long-term value.

On-Chain Data Signals Overheating, Fundamentals Unchanged

On-chain analysis reveals some overheating signs, though valuations are not yet concerning. The MVRV-Z indicator (market capitalization relative to realized value) is currently at 2.31, in the overheated zone, but has stabilized compared to the near-extreme valuation levels in June-August (Chart 2).

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio (NUPL) also indicates overheating but has eased from the high unrealized profit levels seen in Q2 (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), which reflects realized profit/loss, is very close to the equilibrium value of 1.03, suggesting no cause for concern (Chart 4).

Bitcoin’s transaction count and active user numbers remain similar to the previous quarter, indicating a temporary slowdown in network growth (Chart 5). Meanwhile, total transaction volume is trending upward. Fewer transactions but higher volume imply larger funds are being transferred in fewer trades, indicating increased large-scale capital movement.

However, we should not interpret increased volume solely as a positive signal. Recently, inflows to centralized exchanges have increased, which often suggests holders are preparing to dump (sell off) assets (Chart 6). With no improvement in fundamental indicators like transaction count and active users, the rise in volume more likely reflects short-term capital flow and dumping pressure in a high-volatility environment rather than genuine demand expansion.

( The October 11 Crash Confirms Market Has Shifted to Institutional Dominance

The October 11 crash on centralized exchanges (down 14%) proved that the Bitcoin market has shifted from retail-led to institutional-led.

The key difference: the market reaction was markedly different from previous crashes. In late 2021, similar conditions saw retail panic spreading, followed by a collapse. This time, the retracement was limited. After large-scale liquidations, institutional investors continued to buy, demonstrating their determination to defend the downside. Moreover, institutions seem to view this as healthy consolidation, helping to eliminate excessive speculative demand.

In the short term, sequential dumping may lower the average purchase price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility due to market sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue to enter during sideways periods, this correction could lay the groundwork for the next rally.

) Target Price Raised to $200,000

Using our TVM method for Q3 analysis, we derive a neutral baseline price of $154,000, up 14% from Q2’s $135,000. Applying a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment results in a target price of $200,000.

The -2% fundamental adjustment reflects a temporary slowdown in network activity and increased deposits on centralized exchanges, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at 35%. The expansion of global liquidity and ongoing institutional capital inflows, combined with the Federal Reserve’s easing stance, provide strong catalysts for a Q4 rally.

Short-term pullbacks may stem from overheating signals, but these are healthy consolidations rather than trend reversals or shifts in market perception. The benchmark price continues to rise, indicating the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is steadily increasing. Despite the temporary softness, the medium- to long-term upside remains solid.

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