Citi Strategy: Strive Long to adhere to the industry allocation of "pro-cyclical + high beta"

Golden Ten Data on October 7, Bank of China Strategy released a report saying that the rapid rebound of A-shares since the end of September comes from the valuation repair brought about by the unexpected change in policy tone, and in the follow-up space, whether it is analogous to Q1 in 2019 or 2020Q2-2021Q1, there is still room for Rebound at the bottom of the current market valuation. From the perspective of duration, the sustainability of this round of market needs to closely observe the persistence of policy release and the warming trend of economic data. As a leading indicator of the economy, the inflection point of A-shares is ahead of the inflection point of the real economy data, and the market will mostly experience a three-stage market of "the bottom of the valuation brought about by the heating up of policy expectations - the realization of policy expectations, the phased adjustment of the market - the improvement of data, and the numerator market brought about by the upward trend of fundamentals". The press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission on October 8 is expected to bring detailed rules for the implementation of fiscal policy, and until then, the market's expectations for the policy are expected to continue. In the short term, the market may usher in a phased correction after the intensive implementation of the policy, but the A-share market is in the ascendant during the year, and with the repair and verification of high-frequency data, the market will return to the upward channel, and the fourth quarter of A-shares is expected to usher in an excellent absolute return market window period during the year. In the follow-up direction, there is a high probability that it will follow the rotation of pro-cyclical + non-bank-technology growth.