#比特币突破7.9万美元 Considering the current geopolitical risks (Middle East situation) and macro environment (interest rate cut expectations postponed until after September), it is more difficult for Bitcoin to break above $79,477 and stabilize today. The intraday high is likely in the $79k-$79,500 range. Breaking $80k requires stronger capital inflows. My strategy: reducing positions for hedging is better than continuing to go long. Current market signals lean towards caution: 1. Technical divergence: Daily MACD shows bearish divergence, price hits new highs but momentum indicators weaken; 4-hour MACD shows a death cross; RSI bearish divergence signals appear. 2. Funding rate: BTC and ETH funding rates remain negative, reflecting bearish market sentiment, with shorts still paying longs. 3. Whale movements: Several on-chain long whales are reducing or closing positions near $79,000, indicating profit-taking willingness at high levels. 4. Macro suppression: Prolonged high-interest rate environment + geopolitical uncertainties, the market is in a "liquidity contraction" phase. Reduce positions in batches within the $78,500-$79,000 range, lock in some profits, retain the core position, and use no more than 5% of funds to buy out-of-the-money put options as hedging.

Have you ever stopped to think about what must be going through Satoshi Nakamoto’s mind as he watches Bitcoin decline? The creator of Bitcoin and the largest known BTC holder is carrying an absurd unrealized loss—something in the order of US$ 62.6 billion since the coin’s peak. It’s a little surreal once you put the numbers on the table. If we consider that BTC once touched $126K e and is now hovering near $77.8K, it becomes clear just how much pressure this single holding represents in the market. What stands out is that even with this massive drop, the creator of Bitcoin still remains the largest individual BTC holder on the planet. No one else concentrates so much of this currency in a single wallet. It’s like holding the biggest share of an asset you created yourself and watching the value crash. What’s interesting is that Satoshi has been gone for years—no one knows whether he’s been following all of this or if he simply doesn’t care. But the reality is that his holdings remain the world’s largest single stockpile, regardless of the price. It makes you think about volatility and patience in the Bitcoin market, right? Some believe this stockpile could be important to the currency’s future.

Bitdeer’s complete liquidation of all its Bitcoin positions is nothing but a revelation of the true face of the mining industry. Last year, they held up to 2,400 BTC, now it’s been reduced to zero. So why this decision? Actually, it’s simple: mining companies are not believers in Bitcoin, they are energy arbitrageurs. According to a report by blockchain research firm Messari’s analyst Tom Dunleavy, between January and November 2025, 10 major listed mining companies like Core Scientific, Riot, Marathon, Hut 8 extracted a total of 40,700 BTC, while selling 40,300 BTC in the same period. The sale rate is nearly 99%. In other words, these companies have never truly accumulated crypto. As long as Bitcoin’s price is rising, the story of holding is well-promoted, but when prices fall, survival instincts kick in. Currently, the industry is hit with a triple blow. First, the 2024 halving reduced the block reward by half—directly halving miners’ per-unit production, but electricity bills, machine depreciation, and maintenance costs remained the same. Many mining operations are approaching break-even prices at current BTC prices. Even worse, miners are constantly forced to sell the newly mined Bitcoin, creating a structural downward pressure on prices. Second, there are clear issues in financial reporting. Looking at the 2025 annual reports, it’s evident that while revenues increased, losses also grew almost everywhere. MARA Holdings’ revenue rose from $6.56 billion to $9.07 billion, but net loss reached $13.1 billion. Hut 8’s revenue increased from $1.62 billion to $2.35 billion, but net loss shifted from $3.31 billion to $2.48 billion. TeraWulf’s revenue grew from $1.4 billion to $1.69 billion, but earnings per share loss widened from $0.21 to $1.66. Fluctuations in the fair value of crypto assets directly impact income statements. Companies are still financing their transformation with debt—Hut 8 launched a $10 billion ATM program, Cipher Digital completed three financings totaling $37.3 billion. Third, macroeconomic conditions are delivering another blow. Trump is increasing global tariffs, geopolitical uncertainties continue to rise, and Bitcoin dropped below $65,000. According to crypto analysis firm QCP, Bitcoin’s price is significantly below the average mining cost. Maintaining liquidity before mining is no longer a strategic choice but a reality constraint. Under these pressures, the only way out for mining companies is to create new revenue streams using Bitcoin mining infrastructure. AI and high-performance computing (HPC) have become collective moves in this industry. The logic is clear—mining companies have cheap electricity contracts and scalable data center land, two of the most resource-scarce assets for AI infrastructure. Replacing low-margin mining power with high-margin AI compute leasing looks profitable on paper. Bitdeer is rapidly advancing its own Sealminer devices and AI cloud services. It announced its transformation by changing the Cipher brand from Mining to Digital. Many companies are competing for long-term, low-cost electricity contracts. But real progress is much slower than the story suggests. TeraWulf’s Q4 HPC revenue is only $970 million—less than 30% of the total $3.58 billion revenue, and it’s significantly down from Q3. Gaining AI clients, signing contracts, and expanding capacity take time, but debt burdens and share dilution happen instantly. Interestingly, while BTC drops over 17% monthly, several mining companies’ stocks moved inversely. TeraWulf rose 31% during the month, Cipher 8%, Hut 8 6%. This independence reflects a reassessment in the capital markets—these companies are now seen not as leverage tools for Bitcoin prices but as potential carriers of AI compute infrastructure. In the future, valuation criteria will change. It will no longer matter who owns how many BTC, but who has locked in the longest-term, low-cost electricity, and which companies’ data center assets are best suited for AI transformation and can weather balance sheet challenges. Mining companies are never the most faithful believers in Bitcoin—they are the most rational participants. They mine when profitable, hold when it supports valuation, and sell without hesitation when the proceeds are needed for transformation. That’s the fundamental logic of this trade.