Bitcoin has just experienced a rapid decline, dropping from 79,455 directly down to 77,700. This kind of sharp drop is the easiest to throw off your rhythm—fearing a rally when shorting, fearing further drops when bottom-fishing, ending up getting hit from both sides. Trading doesn't have to be so exhausting—first look at the trend, then signals, set proper stop-losses, control position sizes, and leave the rest to the market. Market analysis 2-hour timeframe BTC encountered resistance at 79,455 and pulled back, currently breaking below the short-term moving average, disrupting the bullish rhythm. * Resistance around 77,960 above * Key support at 76,890 below * If it can't quickly regain the midline, further downside is still possible 30-minute timeframe Short-term consecutive bearish candles broke support, with a clear bearish arrangement, and the rebound strength is relatively weak. * Currently oscillating around 77,700 * Resistance concentrated at 78,200-78,400 above * If the rebound lacks volume, it is likely to face resistance and fall again Trading ideas Short position reference: * Short around 78,200-78,400 * Stop-loss at 78,800 * Target 77,200-77,000, if broken look at 76,800 Long position reference: * Long around 76,800-77,000 * Stop-loss at 76,400 * Target 77,700-77,900, if broken look at 78,400

I just reviewed the Q1 returns and honestly, it was quite tough for crypto. Bitcoin closed the first quarter at -23.21%, which honestly isn't what I expected to see. Ethereum was even worse in Q1, dropping -32.17%. What's interesting is to see how these numbers compare to the historical data. Usually, Bitcoin averages a 45.90% gain in Q1, so this -23.21% is quite far from that. Something similar happens with Ethereum, whose historical average in Q1 is around 66.45%, but this year it ended in negative territory. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin records the third worst quarterly performance since 2013, while Ethereum marks the third worst since 2016. Definitely, this year's Q1 was one of those quarters we prefer to forget. It's interesting to see how cycles in crypto change.

#FirstTradeOfTheWeek 🪙 BTC Weekly Trading Plan (Price ~77,926) 🌍 Market Context (This Week) Ongoing tension after US-Iran nuclear talks stall Liquidity cautious, volatility compressed Bitcoin holding strong but not breaking resistance 👉 Market = Compression before expansion 📊 Key Levels to Watch 🔑 Resistance Zones $78,200 – $78,800 → Local resistance $80,000 → Major breakout level $82,500 → Expansion target 🔑 Support Zones $76,500 → Short-term support $75,000 → Key structure level $72,800 → Breakdown zone 🟢 SCENARIO 1: BULLISH BREAKOUT 📈 Trigger: Clean breakout above $80K Expected Move: 👉 $80K → $82.5K → $85K → $88K 🧠 Behavior: Strong impulsive candles High volume breakout FOMO entries increase ✔ Strategy: Breakout entry above $80K (confirmation candle) Retest entry if price holds $80K as support 🔴 SCENARIO 2: BEARISH PULLBACK 📉 Trigger: Loss of $76.5K Expected Move: 👉 $76.5K → $75K → $73K → $70K 🧠 Behavior: Slow bleed OR sudden liquidation wick Weak bounces (lower highs) Fear returns to market ✔ Strategy: Short below breakdown with confirmation Avoid early entries (fake breakdown risk) 🟡 SCENARIO 3: RANGE (MOST LIKELY) 📊 Range: 👉 $76.5K ↔ $80K 🧠 Behavior: Fake breakouts both sides Liquidity grabs Sideways chop ✔ Strategy: Buy near support, sell near resistance Quick scalps only Avoid overtrading 📉 Patterns in Play Ascending Triangle (Bullish Bias) Liquidity Compression Zone Range Accumulation Structure 👉 Big move is loading, but direction not confirmed yet ⚡ Correlation Insight BTC still driving entire market If BTC breaks → Altcoins (like APE) explode If BTC drops → Alts dump harder 🔥 Pro Trader Summary 👉 $80K = Decision Level 👉 Above = Expansion Phase 👉 Below $76.5K = Weakness ⚠️ Trader Rule This Week ✔ Wait for confirmation ✔ Avoid chasing pumps ✔ Respect macro news (geopolitics active) ✔ Risk management is everything