2026-01-07 14:21:27

Recently, the US December ADP employment data was released, showing only 41,000 new jobs added, compared to the market expectation of 47,000, which is a pretty noticeable gap. As soon as this data came out, a signal was immediately sent out—US private sector employment recovery is not as strong as expected.

Why does this matter for the crypto market? Simply put, ADP is a leading indicator of non-farm payrolls. When this data falls short of expectations, the market will reassess the strength of the US economy, which in turn boosts expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Once rate cuts become the mainstream consensus, the US dollar index will be pressured lower, which is good news for non-yield assets like BTC and Ethereum—the opportunity cost of holding them directly decreases. Gold and silver prices are also pushed higher for the same reason.

In the short term, this data has indeed given a boost to gold, silver, and crypto assets, but the follow-through depends on how non-farm payrolls perform. If non-farm payrolls are also weak, the upward momentum could continue. Conversely, if non-farm payrolls unexpectedly show strength, the market may need to adjust. That’s how the market works—one data point triggers a chain reaction, but ultimately, the next data point will confirm the direction.

BTC4,27%

ETH5,54%

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ChainDetective

· 01-10 11:11

4.1K vs 4.7K, the gap is quite significant. The Fed's rate cut expectations are rising again. Non-farm payroll data is the real guiding indicator. Whether this trend can continue depends entirely on it. It's another month of data games. Whether BTC can hold steady still depends on next week. Once rate cut expectations emerge, the dollar will depreciate. By the way, this logic has been well known for a long time. Short-term support and long-term prospects still depend on fundamentals. It's not that simple. I'm just worried that non-farm payrolls might suddenly surprise us, and then we'll have to reverse our positions. The market is always good at guessing the beginning but not the end. That's how it feels.

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EntryPositionAnalyst

· 01-09 18:56

41,000? That's outrageous. US employment isn't as resilient as expected. The night before the non-farm payrolls is always like this, one data point moves the entire market. Can the rate cut expectations hold up this time? It feels like we're going to go through this cycle again. Are there still many people buying BTC now? I'm a bit hesitant. Let's wait for the non-farm payrolls; that's the real decisive drum.

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LightningHarvester

· 01-07 14:50

The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen. How far this wave can go still depends on whether the non-farm payrolls data is strong enough.

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BanklessAtHeart

· 01-07 14:47

Ha, more data to cut leeks again. Can you really speculate on rate cuts just because ADP is weak? The market is really forgetful. Wait for the non-farm payrolls; I've seen too many times when the script backfires. This logical chain is too fragile. Dollar depreciation = crypto rise? Don't be silly, institutions have been accumulating long ago. Without even confirming rate cut expectations, it starts to rise in a sleepwalking manner—just a typical rebound. Bitcoin is already like this; do you still expect it to be a safe haven? I don't believe it.

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ReverseTradingGuru

· 01-07 14:41

It's another game of expectations management, 41,000 vs 47,000, close enough. Waiting for the non-farm payrolls to make another move, see if this wave can stabilize. The rate cut expectation has been hyped up, but can they really cut? That's the key. A weak US dollar is good news for BTC, I’m familiar with this logic. It's time for data validation again; the market entirely depends on the next data point. It’s a bit exhausting. Afei is right, the decline in opportunity cost is indeed a plus, but don’t forget the ghost of inflation is still lurking. Every time, it’s like this: one data point sparks a wave, another confirms it, and we keep bouncing back and forth.

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Blockblind

· 01-07 14:29

Another weak data point, and the Federal Reserve must be scared shitless.

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