# Received a message from a stranger at 3 AM: "WAL broke below 0.15, analysts say this is a diamond bottom, should we go all in?"

My counter-question is: Do you know why those textbooks teaching people to "close your eyes and ALL IN" always end up as blood-and-tears stories?

It's not because the project itself is a scam. It's because they only show you half the map of success stories, while deliberately hiding the cliff on the other side.

**The Truth About "Golden Pits"**

From 0.87 down to 0.14 is indeed getting cut in half, then cut in half again. But this is not a math problem—it's a psychological game designed to create the illusion that "it can't go lower." History repeatedly tells us: there's no floor, only lower lows. Especially for protocols that depend on a single ecosystem—if the mainchain hiccups, it could collapse.

A "pit" truly worth bottom-fishing must meet two hard requirements: on-chain data for the ecosystem is still growing during the downturn (not just social media hype), and the development team remains active (not suddenly silent). Both are non-negotiable.

If neither of these exists, the rebound before your eyes is just a rest stop during free fall, not the formation of a bottom.

**The Trap of Market Cap Comparisons**

"Only $200M market cap, so much cheaper than FIL"—this type of argument is the most deceptive. FIL is a general-purpose storage network, while WAL is a storage solution within the Sui ecosystem. Their fundamentals are worlds apart. Comparing their market caps horizontally is like using a global logistics giant's valuation to assess whether a warehouse is cheap—the logic itself doesn't hold up.

More painfully, a low market cap could mean either undervaluation or that the entire track simply isn't that valuable. The difference is that the latter often has no clear growth path.

So before chasing the bottom, ask yourself: Are you making a decision based on fundamentals, or have you been seduced by a carefully constructed narrative? The former might succeed. The latter will eventually cost you tuition fees.