Today’s market will focus on the US December ADP employment change( “Small Non-Farm” report at 21:15 Beijing time and the November JOLTS job openings data at 23:00. As a forward guide to Friday’s non-farm payroll report, these two data points will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

Looking back at November, ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, well below expectations; the market generally expects December data to rebound with an increase of 47,000. If this release is significantly below expectations (for example, below 30,000 or negative growth again), it could strengthen the expectation of a rate cut, boosting market sentiment. Meanwhile, if the JOLTS job openings data shows an unexpected decline, it will further reinforce market expectations of a policy shift towards easing in 2026.
The impact pathway on the crypto market will be clearly transmitted: if the data is overall weak, it will boost expectations of rate cuts, which is usually short-term positive; conversely, if the data is strong, it will be negative. It should be noted that the current correlation between the crypto market and traditional risk assets may show a “negative skew” (i.e., when stocks fall, crypto may fall even more).