Recently, there has been a very attention-grabbing view in the market — Bitcoin has broken free from the traditional four-year halving cycle and is now following a completely different super-cycle trajectory, with a target of $200,000. This is not just speculation, but a reasoning supported by a set of data.

Looking at the calculations from Bernstein's analyst team makes it clear. They believe that by November 2025, Bitcoin will have found a key support level at $80,000. Based on the current growth pace, it could surge to $150,000 in 2026, and by 2027, it will officially break through $200,000. This stepwise upward logic is actually quite straightforward.

On the supply side, there is support. After the fourth halving in 2024, Bitcoin's scarcity has been redefined, and the bottleneck in circulating supply growth has become more apparent. But what truly changes the game is the shift on the capital side. Global spot ETFs have been aggressively absorbing funds since last year, with cumulative inflows exceeding $180 billion by the end of 2025. Among them, BlackRock's Bitcoin trust has performed the best, attracting a net inflow of $52 billion alone. With a low fee rate of 0.25%, it can generate $187 million in revenue annually, surpassing its famous S&P 500 index fund.

What does this mean? The large-scale entry of traditional financial institutions has completely rewritten the capital landscape of crypto assets. Coupled with the US $38 trillion debt crisis and the resulting credit issues in traditional safe-haven assets, the absolute scarcity of Bitcoin's 21 million coins is beginning to be re-priced. This logical chain is actually easy to understand — when fiat currency credit is questioned and the supply of hard assets is locked, rising prices become inevitable.