Worth pondering: If you divided US stock market annual returns over the past century into 5% buckets—from -50% all the way to +50%—which range would show up most frequently?
Break it down like this: -50% to -45%, -45% to -40%... all the way up to +45% to +50%. Simple question, but the data tells an interesting story about market behavior.
Ready for the answer?
📊 Top three winners:
• 15% to 20% returns: most common • 10% to 15% returns: second place • 20% to 25% returns: third place
Why does this matter? It reveals that positive years dominate the historical record, and most winning years cluster in the 10-25% range. This isn't just trivia—it's a reminder that equity markets have historically rewarded patience over panic. For anyone thinking about long-term asset allocation, these patterns provide real insight into what "normal" market performance actually looks like across decades.
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Layer3Dreamer
· 4h ago
theoretically speaking, if we map this distribution across a state verification curve... the clustering around 10-25% starts looking like a recursive pattern, ngl. makes me think about how centralized markets operate vs. what a truly interoperable, cross-chain paradigm could achieve. patience rewards indeed, but what if we could parallelize that patience across multiple rollups simultaneously?
Reply0
ConsensusBot
· 5h ago
This data is interesting, but we all know that history doesn't equal the future. The environment has changed now.
View OriginalReply0
ProbablyNothing
· 5h ago
The 10-25 range does seem to be the case for most years, but I'm more concerned about why there are so few negative years... Is it because the data itself is limited or is the market really so resilient to declines?
Worth pondering: If you divided US stock market annual returns over the past century into 5% buckets—from -50% all the way to +50%—which range would show up most frequently?
Break it down like this: -50% to -45%, -45% to -40%... all the way up to +45% to +50%. Simple question, but the data tells an interesting story about market behavior.
Ready for the answer?
📊 Top three winners:
• 15% to 20% returns: most common
• 10% to 15% returns: second place
• 20% to 25% returns: third place
Why does this matter? It reveals that positive years dominate the historical record, and most winning years cluster in the 10-25% range. This isn't just trivia—it's a reminder that equity markets have historically rewarded patience over panic. For anyone thinking about long-term asset allocation, these patterns provide real insight into what "normal" market performance actually looks like across decades.