Bitcoin crashes to $74,000: Precious metals rebound insights, what's next for the crypto world?

Introduction

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced intense volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 and then steadily declined, crashing near $74,000 in early February 2026, triggering market panic. Meanwhile, the precious metals market also suffered heavy losses: gold prices fell from a high of $5,600 per ounce to $4,400, and silver plummeted from $121 per ounce to $71, but then quickly rebounded, with gold rising back to $4,900 and silver to $85. This pattern of “violent rebound after a crash” has been evident in precious metals, while the Bitcoin market remains subdued. Will the next move be a “desperate comeback” or a “further decline”? This article will analyze potential trends from macroeconomic, geopolitical, technical, and fundamental perspectives.

Analysis of the Causes of Bitcoin’s Crash

Bitcoin’s sharp decline is not an isolated event but the result of compounded macro factors. First, U.S. President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, which was interpreted by the market as a hawkish signal. Warsh emphasized monetary discipline and high interest rate policies, leading investors to expect the Fed to maintain high rates, strengthening the dollar index. In a high-interest-rate environment, risk assets like cryptocurrencies become less attractive, and capital flows into safer assets.

Second, geopolitical risks have intensified. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, sparking risk aversion among investors, but Bitcoin failed to serve as “digital gold” and instead declined along with risk assets. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced massive outflows, with nearly $1.5 billion net outflow last week, and Ether ETFs saw outflows of $327 million, reflecting institutional investors reducing holdings amid macro uncertainty.

Liquidity issues further amplified volatility. Weekend low liquidity led to “flash crashes,” with leveraged trading liquidations reaching $500 million, mainly affecting long positions. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin formed a “death cross” (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day), confirming a bearish signal, with prices accelerating below $90,000. Currently, BTC has broken below the $80,000 support level, testing the $74,000 mark.

Lessons from the Crash and Violent Rebound in Precious Metals

The movement in precious metals markets is highly similar to Bitcoin’s but rebounded first. Gold and silver experienced historic single-day declines last Friday: gold fell 9-10%, silver crashed 31%, the worst since 1980. The reasons are also rooted in a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations: after Warsh’s nomination, the dollar rebounded from a four-year low, putting pressure on dollar-denominated assets like precious metals. Moreover, global tariff wars and government shutdown fears intensified recession panic, prompting investors to sell risk assets.

However, precious metals quickly rebounded: on Monday, gold rose 5.5% to $4,913, and silver surged 11% to $85. This was driven by several factors: first, repositioning after extreme selling, leading to short covering; second, the safe-haven appeal of metals regained favor amid geopolitical tensions; third, exchanges raised margin requirements, curbing further volatility. Analysts believe this rebound is a short-term correction rather than a trend reversal, with long-term drivers like inflation and geopolitical risks still in play.

Compared to Bitcoin, the rebound in precious metals demonstrates greater resilience. As “risk assets,” cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to stock market and liquidity fluctuations, whereas metals benefit from physical demand and central bank reserves (e.g., purchases by China and India).

Correlation Analysis Between Bitcoin and Precious Metals

The common triggers for their crashes are macroeconomic conditions: a strong dollar, high-interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks. Bitcoin was once considered “digital gold,” but during this event, their correlation weakened: when gold rebounded, BTC remained low. This indicates Bitcoin is more reliant on leverage and speculation, while precious metals have more stable fundamentals.

Historically, during the 2022 bear market, the correlation coefficient between BTC and gold reached as high as 0.8, but between 2025-2026, it dropped to around 0.4. If precious metals continue to rebound, they may provide psychological support for BTC, but if the dollar remains strong, their correlation could further decouple.

Next Steps in the Crypto Market: A Desperate Rebound or Further Decline?

Arguments for a rebound

Technical support: $74,000 is a key support level, close to the miner shutdown price ($69,000–$74,000). If broken, it could trigger miner sell-offs, but currently, the price has bottomed out and rebounded to $78,000. The RSI indicator is oversold (14-day RSI <30), suggesting short-term rebound potential with targets of $80,000–$85,000.

Fundamental improvements: ETF outflows are slowing, and if Fed policies soften, capital may flow back in. In 2026 forecasts, optimists like Youwei Yang project a high of $225,000. Discussions on platforms like X show some traders see $74k as a “bottom,” expecting a “desperate rebound.”

Macro turning point: If geopolitical risks ease or the dollar weakens (e.g., improved Chinese data), risk assets could rally. The violent rebound in precious metals may signal a similar pattern.

Arguments for further decline

Bear market confirmation: The death cross and bearish flag patterns point to further declines, with targets of $60,000–$68,000. Analysts like Alex Thorn warn of testing $56,000–$58,000.

Miner pressure: If prices fall below $74,000, mid-sized miners (like S19) will incur losses, triggering a sell-off.

Macro risks: Persistent high interest rates, government shutdowns, and global recession fears will suppress rebounds. The 2026 average forecast is around $110,000, but the low end is only $75,000. Some opinions on X suggest more liquidation of long positions is needed first.

Overall, in the short term (2-4 weeks), a technical rebound to $80,000–$85,000 is possible, but if macro conditions do not improve, medium-term downside risk is higher, with a potential bottom around $65,000. Long-term, BTC in 2026 may oscillate between $75,000 and $150,000.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s crash to $74,000 contrasts sharply with the “post-crash rebound” pattern seen in precious metals, highlighting the speculative nature of the crypto market. The next move depends on macro shifts: if the dollar weakens and risks ease, a “desperate rebound” is possible; otherwise, further decline to the $60,000 range is likely. Investors should monitor Fed policies, ETF liquidity, and technical supports, and diversify risks. The market is unpredictable; decisions should be based on data, not emotions.