Valuation exceeds $100 billion! JPMorgan Chase initiates coverage on Waymo: predicts over 277 million orders by 2030, with a CAGR of up to 79%

JPMorgan Chase Releases First Valuation Model for Waymo, Expecting Explosive Growth in the Next Five Years. The bank forecasts that this autonomous driving company under Alphabet will see annual order volume surge from 15 million in 2025 to 277 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 79%. Total bookings are projected to approach $6 billion, capturing about 6% of the U.S. ride-hailing market.

Coinciding with this forecast, Waymo has just completed a $16 billion funding round, valuing the company at $126 billion, just 15 months after its previous $5.6 billion financing. Waymo stated that the new funds will enable the company to “advance at an unprecedented pace.” During this period, Waymo’s weekly paid orders have nearly tripled from 150,000 to over 400,000, with a goal of reaching 15 million orders in 2025.

According to Chase’s Trading Desk, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Waymo’s vehicle fleet is expected to expand from fewer than 3,000 vehicles at the end of 2025 to over 35,000 by 2030, with a CAGR of 67%. In 2026, the fleet could double to approximately 5,725 vehicles, providing over 35 million orders and generating more than $800 million in total bookings.

The bank believes autonomous driving will expand the overall market size, with most growth coming from incremental markets, though some share will be taken from traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft. Currently, Waymo operates in six markets including Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with plans to add 10 more U.S. cities by 2026 and expand into London and Tokyo.

Aggressive Expansion Plans Support High Growth Expectations

JPMorgan’s valuation model is based on Waymo’s city expansion plans and fleet growth trajectory. The bank expects Waymo to enter 10 new U.S. cities—including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando—by 2026, as well as launch operations in London and possibly Tokyo, bringing the total number of operational and testing cities to over 20.

For 2026, JPMorgan estimates that Waymo’s Q4 orders will reach approximately 11.6 million, about 900,000 per week, aligning with Waymo’s own target of 1 million weekly orders by the end of 2026.

In terms of market share, JPMorgan projects Waymo will account for about 1% of U.S. ride-hailing orders and total bookings in 2026, increasing to approximately 6% by 2030. However, the bank emphasizes that autonomous driving is a market enabler; Waymo’s success will help grow the overall market rather than simply stealing share from existing players.

$16 Billion Funding Accelerates Commercial Deployment

Waymo announced the completion of a $16 billion funding round on February 2, with investors including major backer Alphabet, as well as Dragoneer, DST Global, Sequoia Capital, and others. This is the second large-scale funding since raising $5.6 billion in October 2024, with only 15 months between rounds.

During this period, Waymo’s operational data has surged. Weekly paid orders increased from 150,000 to over 400,000, with the full-year 2025 target of 15 million orders tripling the 2024 figure. Reports indicate that by December 2025, Waymo was operating at a pace of 450,000 weekly orders, an 80% increase from 250,000 in April 2025.

Waymo stated it will use the new funds to “advance at an unprecedented speed” in global expansion, aiming to reach over 1 million weekly orders by the end of 2026—about 2.5 times the current 400,000. The company is laying infrastructure for ride-hailing in more than 20 cities, including international markets like Tokyo and London.

JPMorgan notes that this large funding round will support Waymo’s rapid fleet expansion in the short term, providing financial backing to reach the fleet goals of 5,725 vehicles by 2026 and 35,275 by 2030, the latter about 13 times the current fleet size.

Airport and Highway Access as Key Breakthroughs

Waymo recently made significant progress in airport access. Last week, Waymo announced the launch of commercial operations at San Francisco International Airport (SFO), initially open to select users, with plans to open to all users in the coming months. The timing is strategic, just before Super Bowl on February 8, and in preparation for the FIFA World Cup in June-July, with six matches scheduled in Santa Clara.

Previously, Waymo began operations at San Jose Airport and received testing permits at Newark Airport. It has also started employee testing at Dallas Love Field and San Antonio International Airport. As of December 2025, Waymo reported over 500,000 total orders at Phoenix and San Jose airports.

JPMorgan estimates that airport orders account for about 15% of Uber’s total ride-hailing bookings, with higher profit margins. Gaining broader airport and highway access could impact Uber’s total bookings and EBITDA in the medium term. However, the bank also notes that autonomous driving overall may expand the serviceable market.

In operational data, California Public Utilities Commission figures show that Waymo’s orders in California reached about 2.7 million in Q3 2025, up 20% quarter-over-quarter and tripling year-over-year. In September alone, orders exceeded 1 million for the first time, roughly 237,000 per week, accounting for over 50% of Waymo’s global weekly operations of 450,000.

User Data Shows Growth but Retention Needs Improvement

According to Sensor Tower, Waymo One’s monthly active users (MAU) grew 63% year-over-year in January 2026, representing about 6.0% of Lyft’s US MAU and 3.3% of Uber’s US MAU. In terms of downloads, Waymo One’s app was about 25% of Lyft’s and 34% of Uber’s.

However, in user engagement metrics, Waymo still lags behind traditional ride-hailing apps. The daily active to monthly active ratio (DAU/MAU) is 11% for Uber, 12% for Lyft, and only 8% for Waymo One. Retention rates at various time points are lower for Waymo One compared to Uber and Lyft, possibly indicating a higher proportion of first-time or casual users.

Google Search Trends show that in Waymo’s five operational markets, search interest in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Austin has surpassed Lyft, while Los Angeles and Atlanta are slightly below Lyft. Notably, in Las Vegas, the newly launched public operation of Zoox in September has also exceeded Lyft in search interest, despite its limited operational area.

According to Bloomberg Second Measure, Waymo’s sales in Q4 2025 increased 134% year-over-year, higher than 117% in Q3, but the month-over-month growth slowed in Q4, with December only up 2%. This data does not include orders booked via Uber in Austin and Atlanta.

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