Billions in subjective private fundraising recover! 2026 development roadmap fully revealed (including core tracks)

Since last year, along with the continued recovery of the A-share market, the investment performance and operational status of billion-dollar subjective private equity funds have generally improved. Regarding the market in the new year, star private funds in the top tier of the industry are generally maintaining an optimistic outlook.

Overall Recovery of Billion-Dollar Subjective Private Equity Funds

In the past few years, quantitative private funds have undoubtedly been in the spotlight. With their outstanding excess returns, the number of billion-dollar quantitative private funds has even surpassed that of billion-dollar subjective private funds, whose performance has traditionally lagged behind. However, it is worth noting that last year, the performance of billion-dollar subjective private funds began to show a significant rebound.

According to data from a third-party organization, the average return of 23 billion-dollar subjective private funds was 25.80%, with 22 of them achieving positive returns, accounting for 95.65%. Among those with positive returns, 12 funds earned within 20%, 6 funds earned between 20% and 49.99%, and 4 funds exceeded 50%. Notably, funds like Yuanshin Investment, Fusheng Asset, and Wangzheng Asset performed well.

According to industry insiders from Securities Times, benefiting from increased management scale and performance fees, the operational conditions of billion-dollar subjective private funds have also significantly improved. In 2026, Fusheng Asset in Shanghai completed a fundraising of 1 billion yuan in a single day and sold out, becoming one of the first “hot” private funds of the year.

“A year ago, the company’s performance finally improved, and the scale gradually stabilized. The pressure felt much less. We hope to distribute more bonuses this year. But we remain cautious externally; our fund managers are focused on improving performance,” said a person in charge of a billion-dollar subjective private fund.

From the trends of various billion-dollar subjective private funds, two points are particularly noteworthy: first, the strengthening of research and investment teams. Many funds are actively recruiting top talent during this period, with some star public fund managers quietly joining private funds. Second, expanding research capabilities. These funds are continuously broadening their research scope and increasing investigation efforts. Data shows that in December last year, 43 billion-dollar private funds conducted research on 151 A-shares across 23 first-level industries in Shenwan, with a total of 291 research visits, accounting for 16.49% of all private fund research.

Regarding research activities, several fund managers told Securities Times that last year, their fund managers increased the frequency of overseas research trips, with visits to Africa for mining becoming a must-do for many private fund managers.

Market Positivity Has Become a Consensus

For the equity market in 2026, several billion-dollar private funds recently provided strategic outlooks, generally maintaining an optimistic tone. The core logic supporting the market revolves around policy support, liquidity easing, and industrial dividends creating resonance. On the macro level, the focus is on high-quality development domestically. The “14th Five-Year Plan” emphasizes cultivating domestic demand and technological innovation as core tasks, with ample policy tools to stabilize prices and increase profits from both supply and demand sides, thus strengthening the market bottom. External liquidity conditions are also favorable, with a strong likelihood of Fed rate cuts, coupled with the start of a period of RMB appreciation, gradually resuming overseas capital inflows into Chinese assets, injecting incremental momentum into the market.

Chongyang Investment states that high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are the main drivers of this round of asset reallocation. The current reallocation is not a herd behavior driven by a warming stock market but is rational and gradual. Looking ahead, as long as housing prices do not show obvious upward expectations, the supply of funds to the stock market will remain assured. It is highly likely that residents and financial institutions will continue to reallocate assets, and the resilience of this round of market rally may exceed expectations.

Freshwater Springs Investment also pointed out that the medium- and long-term fixed deposits accumulated since 2022 have been maturing since Q4 2025, and these funds are expected to flow into the stock market indirectly through channels like insurance and wealth management, forming considerable incremental capital. Looking into 2026, the market may exhibit the following features: first, investor sentiment towards Chinese assets generally warms; second, a new narrative around “Chinese assets” is forming, and the market is beginning to expect more sustainable trends; third, the market logic may shift from valuation repair to a focus on profitability, requiring more detailed differentiation of industry development conditions.

Liang Shuang, Managing Director of Hexie Hui, believes that looking into 2026, the biggest variable for overseas markets is whether the Federal Reserve will implement large-scale QE after changing its chair. Overall U.S.-China relations are stable, but potential setbacks are uncertain, and geopolitical conflicts are unpredictable and could increase market volatility. Domestically, the clear signals are “anti-involution” → capacity clearing → rising prices of production and living materials → GDP growth. Technological自主创新 and AI development are undoubtedly among the main themes. Overall, the outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with abundant opportunities in the structural layout.

Balanced Allocation of Tech Mainline and Contrarian Strategies

In terms of sector allocation, the technology sector has become a consensus mainline across the industry. U.S.-China technological competition is further broadening investment dimensions, and all institutions are optimistic about the long-term value of AI industry.

Gao Yuncheng, Partner and Fund Manager at Jinglin Asset Management, stated that the core holdings of Jinglin are companies with strong customer stickiness and pricing power, clear product differentiation, and the ability to control acceptable profit margins at their own pace. He believes that AI’s penetration and transformation across various industries have just begun. Companies serving as important AI application entry points or platforms should be prioritized. 2026 is likely to be the year when AI agents truly become widespread, but companies without AI “tickets” may be marginalized.

In the tech field, Liyi Investment focuses on the capacity of sub-sectors like semiconductors and communications to absorb incremental capital. Meanwhile, innovative drugs, leveraging talent and R&D advantages, are an important supplement to the broader tech sector. Chongyang Investment also mentioned that they will explore undervalued innovative drug companies, adhering to the core theme of technological innovation.

Cyclical and contrarian strategies form multiple supports, echoing private funds’ overseas mining research activities. Freshwater Springs Investment and Yuan Lesheng focus on supply-demand improvement opportunities. Both are optimistic about industries like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and aerospace benefiting from capacity clearing and global recovery. Commodities like copper and aluminum, with reasonable valuations, still hold investment value. Some institutions also focus on contrarian opportunities; for example, Chongyang Investment advocates implementing a “defensive counterattack, maintaining integrity while seeking innovation” strategy, explicitly seeking contrarian opportunities in sectors like consumer goods, military industry, and real estate, to preserve existing gains and further expand.

(Source: Securities Times)