C.Q. Data Signals Bear Market—But Ultimate Bitcoin Bottom Still Ahead

Recent CryptoQuant (C.Q.) analysis reveals Bitcoin has entered a bear market phase as of mid-February 2026, yet key indicators suggest the cycle’s deepest capitulation has not yet arrived. With BTC currently trading around $65,760 and market structure pointing to potential accumulation zones lower, timing the optimal entry requires understanding where true exhaustion metrics still need to go.

Current Bearish Indicators Fall Short of Extreme Capitulation

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator from C.Q. has reached levels unseen since the 2022 FTX collapse, marking its most bearish reading in years. However, the critical distinction is that the market remains in a “Bear” phase rather than the “Extreme Bear” territory that historically precedes structural reversals.

Two key metrics reinforce this assessment. The MVRV Ratio stands at approximately 1.1—approaching the undervalued threshold below 1.0, but not yet at the capitulation extremes seen at previous cycle bottoms. Similarly, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has yet to reach the ~20% unrealized loss zone typical of past bottoms. While $5.4 billion in losses materialized on February 5, 2026, cumulative monthly loss volume remains well below the 1.1 million BTC washout witnessed during late 2022. These gaps suggest the market’s true pain level has not fully materialized.

$55,000 Zone May Trigger Real Bottom Formation

According to C.Q.'s 2026 assessment, a true bottom requires both price discovery and time-based consolidation. The realized price level of $55,000 emerges as a critical support zone, having historically served as a major floor during previous cycle lows. Alternative analyst estimates range between $53,000–$57,000 if the $80,000 level fails to hold.

Equally important is the timeline for bottom formation. Once the realized price zone is reached, history suggests 4–6 months of sideways “base formation” typically follows before a structural reversal takes hold. Current projections place the ultimate capitulation window between September and November 2026.

Strategic Window: Institutional Flows as Final Confirmation Signal

The wildcard in this analysis is institutional behavior. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have transitioned to net sellers in 2026, creating a 56,000 BTC demand gap compared to 2025 inflows. A confirmed reversal signal would likely require these flows to stabilize or return positive territory, signaling renewed institutional appetite.

For traders watching C.Q. data, the message is clear: the bear market is real, but the ultimate bottom remains ahead. The convergence of price targets, time cycles, and institutional flow reversals will ultimately determine when the window for optimal entry truly opens.